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Does single monetary policy have asymmetric real effects in EMU ?

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  • Marilyne Huchet-Bourdon

    ()
    (CREM - Centre de Recherche en Economie et Management - CNRS : UMR6211 - Université de Rennes I - Université de Caen)

Abstract

This article compares reactions of economies in Economic Monetary Union to a single monetary policy. For that, we estimate a reaction function supposed to represent the behaviour of European Central Bank over the period 1980-1998. Then residuals are introduced into the production equation of each country. We break up monetary shocks in two axes: first, anticipated against unanticipated shocks and then positive against negative shocks. These distinctions permit a best evaluation of the degree of homogeneity of the effects of monetary policy. France, Germany, Spain and Austria seem more sensitive to unanticipated interest rates increases contrary to Belgium and Italy. These results illustrate all the problem of single monetary policy.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by HAL in its series Post-Print with number halshs-00143785.

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Date of creation: 28 Feb 2003
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Publication status: Published, Journal of policy Modelling, 2003, 25, 2, 151-178
Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00143785

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Keywords: monetary policy shocks; reaction function; asymmetric effects; Economic Monetary Union.;

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  1. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
  2. Mccallum, Bennet T., 1988. "Robustness properties of a rule for monetary policy," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 173-203, January.
  3. repec:fth:harver:1418 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. Bernanke, Ben S. & Mihov, Ilian, 1995. "Measuring Monetary Policy," Economics Series 10, Institute for Advanced Studies.
  5. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice Some international evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1033-1067, June.
  6. Bennett T. McCallum, 1987. "The case for rules in the conduct of monetary policy: a concrete example," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sep, pages 10-18.
  7. Perron, P., 1994. "Further Evidence on Breaking Trend Functions in Macroeconomic Variables," Cahiers de recherche 9421, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
  8. John H. Cochrane, 1995. "What do the VARs Mean?: Measuring the Output Effects of Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 5154, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Gert Schnabel & Stefan Gerlach, 1999. "The Taylor rule and interest rates in the EMU area: a note," BIS Working Papers 73, Bank for International Settlements.
  10. Mishkin, Frederic S, 1982. "Does Anticipated Monetary Policy Matter? An Econometric Investigation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(1), pages 22-51, February.
  11. Karras, Georgios, 1996. "Are the Output Effects of Monetary Policy Asymmetric? Evidence from a Sample of European Countries," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 58(2), pages 267-78, May.
  12. Cover, James Peery, 1992. "Asymmetric Effects of Positive and Negative Money-Supply Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(4), pages 1261-82, November.
  13. Rudi Dornbusch & Carlo Favero & Francesco Giavazzi, 1998. "Immediate challenges for the European Central Bank," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 13(26), pages 15-64, 04.
  14. Rudiger Dornbusch & Carlo A. Favero & Francesco Giavazzi, 1998. "The Immediate Challenges for the European Central Bank," NBER Working Papers 6369, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. J. Bradford DeLong & Lawrence H. Summers, 1988. "How Does Macroeconomic Policy Affect Output?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 19(2), pages 433-494.
  16. McCallum, Bennett T., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice: two critical points : A comment," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 215-220, December.
  17. George A. Kahn, 1988. "Nominal GNP: an anchor for monetary policy?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Nov, pages 18-35.
  18. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1988. "Variable Trends in Economic Time Series," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 147-74, Summer.
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Cited by:
  1. Carin van der Cruijsen & Maria Demertzis, 2009. "How Anchored Are Inflation Expectations in EMU Countries?," DNB Working Papers 235, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  2. Yang, Zan & Wang, Songtao & Campbell, Robert, 2010. "Monetary policy and regional price boom in Sweden," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 865-879, November.
  3. Jesús Crespo-Cuaresma & Octavio Fernández-Amador, 2010. "Business cycle convergence in EMU: A second look at the second moment," FIW Working Paper series 056, FIW.
  4. Alagidede, Paul & Coleman, Simeon & Cuestas, Juan Carlos, 2012. "Inflationary shocks and common economic trends: Implications for West African monetary union membership," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 460-475.

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