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The Asymmetric Effects of Uncertainty on Inflation and Output Growth

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  • Shields, KalvInder

    (University of Melbourne)

  • Kevin B Grier
  • Olan T Henry
  • Nilss Olekalns

Abstract

We study the effects of growth volatility and inflation volatility on average rates of output growth and inflation for post-war U.S. data. Our results suggest that growth uncertainty is associated with higher average growth and lower average inflation. Inflation uncertainty is significantly negatively correlated with both output growth and average inflation. Both inflation and growth display evidence of significant asymmetric response to positive and negative shocks of equal magnitude.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Royal Economic Society in its series Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 with number 187.

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Date of creation: 04 Jun 2003
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Handle: RePEc:ecj:ac2003:187

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Keywords: growth; inflation; uncertainty; asymmetry; generalised impluse response functions;

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  17. repec:cup:etheor:v:11:y:1995:i:1:p:122-50 is not listed on IDEAS
  18. Ramey, Garey & Ramey, Valerie A, 1995. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link between Volatility and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1138-51, December.
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