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Business Cycles in the New EU Member Countries and their Conformity with the Euro Area

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  • Michael Artis
  • Massimiliano Marcellino
  • Tommaso Proietti

    ()

Abstract

We analyse the evolution of the business cycle in the new EU member countries, after a careful examination of the seasonal properties of the available series and the required modification of the cycle dating procedures. We then focus on the degree of cyclical concordance within the group of new EU member countries, which turns out to be in general lower than that between the EU-15 countries (the Baltic countries constitute an exception). With respect to the euro area, the indications of synchronization are also generally low and lower relative to the position obtaining for countries taking part in previous enlargements (with the exceptions of Poland, Slovenia and Hungary).

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File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-2005-5km7v183wfr5
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by OECD Publishing,CIRET in its journal Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis.

Volume (Year): 2005 (2005)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 7-41

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Handle: RePEc:oec:stdkaa:5km7v183wfr5

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Related research

Keywords: Business cycles; Dating algorithms; Cycle synchronization; EU enlargement; Seasonal adjustment;

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Cited by:
  1. Michael Artis, 2006. "What Do we Now Know About Currency Unions?," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 107, pages 9-28.
  2. Gächter, Martin & Riedl , Aleksandra & Ritzberger-Grünwald, Doris, 2013. "Business cycle convergence or decoupling? Economic adjustment in CESEE during the crisis," BOFIT Discussion Papers 3/2013, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  3. Eickmeier, Sandra & Breitung, Jorg, 2006. "How synchronized are new EU member states with the euro area? Evidence from a structural factor model," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 538-563, September.
  4. Oscar Bajo-Rubio & Carmen Díaz-Roldán, . "Characterizing macroeconomic shocks in the CEECs," Working Papers on International Economics and Finance 05-12, FEDEA.
  5. Michael J. Artis & Jarko Fidrmuc & Johann Scharler, 2008. "The transmission of business cycles," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 16(3), pages 559-582, 07.
  6. Macchiarelli, Corrado, 2013. "Similar GDP-inflation cycles. An application to CEE countries and the euro area," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 124-144.
  7. Sandra Eickmeier & Joerg Breitung, 2006. "Business cycle transmission from the euro area to CEECs," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 229, Society for Computational Economics.
  8. Zsolt Darvas & György Szapáry, 2008. "Business Cycle Synchronization in the Enlarged EU," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 1-19, February.
  9. Máximo Camacho & Gabriel Pérez-Quirós & Lorena Saiz, 2005. "Do european business cycles look like one?," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0518, Banco de Espa�a.

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