An Empirical Study of the Cyclical Effects of Monetary Policy in Spain (1977-1997)
AbstractIn this paper, we provide empirical evidence for the Spanish economy, over the period 1977-97, on whether monetary policy shocks have had different effects on real output growth depending on the state of the business cycle. To do so, we adopt an extension of Hamilton's (1989) Markov Switching Model, as recently proposed by García and Schaller (1995), where shocks to an interest rate policy rule followed by the Bank of Spain are allowed to affect both the growth rate of output and the transition probabilities of moving from one phase to another. The analysis is carried out both at the aggregate level and the sectorial level, with the aim of addressing the following questions: (i) Does monetary policy have the same effect regardless of the current phase of economic fluctuations?, (ii) Does monetary policy only have an incremental effect on output growth rate within a given state or does it also affect the probability of state switch, and, (iii) How do the aggregate and sectorial results compare?
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 2193.
Date of creation: Aug 1999
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Centre for Economic Policy Research, 77 Bastwick Street, London EC1V 3PZ
Phone: 44 - 20 - 7183 8801
Fax: 44 - 20 - 7183 8820
Other versions of this item:
- Juan J. Dolado & Ramón María-Dolores, 2001. "An empirical study of the cyclical effects of monetary policy in Spain (1977-1997)," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 25(1), pages 3-30, January.
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- D92 - Microeconomics - - Intertemporal Choice - - - Intertemporal Firm Choice, Investment, Capacity, and Financing
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
- E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist, 1993.
"Monetary policy, business cycles and the behavior of small manufacturing firms,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
93-4, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1994. "Monetary Policy, Business Cycles, and the Behavior of Small Manufacturing Firms," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 109(2), pages 309-40, May.
- Gertler, M. & Gilchrist, S., 1993. "Monetary Policy, Business Cycles and the Behavior of Small Manufacturing Firms," Working Papers 93-02, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Gertler, M. & Gilchrist, S., 1992. "Monetary Policy, Business Cycles and the Behavior of Small Manufacturing Firms," Working Papers 92-08, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist, 1991. "Monetary Policy, Business Cycles and the Behavior of Small Manufacturing Firms," NBER Working Papers 3892, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hansen, Bruce E, 1992. "The Likelihood Ratio Test under Nonstandard Conditions: Testing the Markov Switching Model of GNP," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages S61-82, Suppl. De.
- Cochrane, John H., 1998.
"What do the VARs mean? Measuring the output effects of monetary policy,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 277-300, April.
- John H. Cochrane, 1995. "What do the VARs Mean?: Measuring the Output Effects of Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 5154, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Eric M. Leeper & David B. Gordon, 1991.
"In search of the liquidity effect,"
International Finance Discussion Papers
403, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Ball, Laurence & Mankiw, N Gregory, 1994.
"Asymmetric Price Adjustment and Economic Fluctuations,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(423), pages 247-61, March.
- Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1994. "Asymmetric Price Adjustment and Economic Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 4089, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ball, L. & Mankiw, N.G., 1992. "Asymmetric Price Adjustment and Economic Fluctuations," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1602, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- Cover, James Peery, 1992. "Asymmetric Effects of Positive and Negative Money-Supply Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(4), pages 1261-82, November.
- Rafael Repullo & Javier Suarez, 1999.
"Entrepreneurial moral hazard and bank monitoring: a model of the credit channel,"
Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics
129, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Repullo, Rafael & Suarez, Javier, 2000. "Entrepreneurial moral hazard and bank monitoring: A model of the credit channel," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(10), pages 1931-1950, December.
- Repullo,R. & Suarez,J., 1996. "Entrepreneurial Moral Hazard and Bank Monitoring: A Model of the Credit Channel," Papers 9604, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Y Financieros-.
- Repullo, Rafael & Suarez, Javier, 1999. "Entrepreneurial Moral Hazard and Bank Monitoring: A Model of the Credit Channel," CEPR Discussion Papers 2060, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Etsuro Shioji, 1997. "Spanish monetary policy: A structural VAR analysis," Economics Working Papers 215, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
- Neftci, Salih N, 1984. "Are Economic Time Series Asymmetric over the Business Cycle?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(2), pages 307-28, April.
- Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
- Hamilton, James D., 1990. "Analysis of time series subject to changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 39-70.
- Ricardo J. Caballero & Eduardo M.R.A. Engel, 1992. "Price Rigidities, Asymmetries, and Output Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 4091, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mark Gertler, 1988.
"Financial structure and aggregate economic activity: an overview,"
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 559-596.
- Gertler, Mark, 1988. "Financial Structure and Aggregate Economic Activity: An Overview," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 20(3), pages 559-88, August.
- Mark L. Gertler, 1988. "Financial Structure and Aggregate Economic Activity: An Overview," NBER Working Papers 2559, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Tsiddon, Daniel, 1993. "The (Mis)Behaviour of the Aggregate Price Level," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(4), pages 889-902, October.
- Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1989. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 14-31, March.
- Hamilton, James D., 1987. "Monetary factors in the great depression," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 145-169, March.
- Karras, Georgios, 1996. "Are the Output Effects of Monetary Policy Asymmetric? Evidence from a Sample of European Countries," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 58(2), pages 267-78, May.
- Beaudry, Paul & Koop, Gary, 1993. "Do recessions permanently change output?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 149-163, April.
- Akerlof, George A & Yellen, Janet L, 1985. "A Near-rational Model of the Business Cycle, with Wage and Price Intertia," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 100(5), pages 823-38, Supp..
- Pagan, Adrian, 1984. "Econometric Issues in the Analysis of Regressions with Generated Regressors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(1), pages 221-47, February.
- Morten O. Ravn & Martín Solà, 1997. "Asymmetric effects of monetary policy in the US: Positive vs. negative or big vs. small?," Economics Working Papers 247, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Dec 1997.
- Engelbert Stockhammer & Simon Sturn, 2012.
"The impact of monetary policy on unemployment hysteresis,"
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(21), pages 2743-2756, July.
- Engelbert Stockhammer & Simon Sturn, 2008. "The Impact of Monetary Policy on Unemployment Hysteresis," IMK Working Paper 15-2008, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.