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When is monetary policy effective?

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  • John Ammer
  • Allan D. Brunner

Abstract

In this paper, we investigate a number of issues that have not been completely addressed in previous studies regarding the possible asymmetric effects of monetary policy. Overall, we interpret our results as weak evidence in favor of sticky-wage and sticky-price theories and strong evidence against credit-rationing theories. First, we find that models that allow for asymmetries with respect to contractionary/expansionary monetary policy fit the data better than models that allow for asymmetries associated with the state of the business cycle. Second, we find that contractionary monetary policy shocks have a much larger effect on output than expansionary policy shocks, although this result is somewhat sensitive to the econometric specification. Finally, we find that monetary policy shocks that occur during economic expansions appear to have about the same effect as shocks that occur during recessions; this result is robust to various econometric specifications.

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File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/1995/520/ifdp520.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series International Finance Discussion Papers with number 520.

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Date of creation: 1995
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:520

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Related research

Keywords: Monetary policy ; Monetary theory;

References

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  1. Ben S. Bernanke & Alan S. Blinder, 1989. "The federal funds rate and the channels of monetary transmission," Working Papers 89-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  2. Neftci, Salih N, 1984. "Are Economic Time Series Asymmetric over the Business Cycle?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(2), pages 307-28, April.
  3. David B. Gordon & Eric M. Leeper, 1992. "The dynamic impacts of monetary policy: an exercise in tentative identification," Working Paper 92-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  4. Sichel, D.E., 1988. "Business Cycle Asymmetry: A Deeper Look," Papers 85, Princeton, Department of Economics - Financial Research Center.
  5. Friedman, Benjamin M & Kuttner, Kenneth N, 1992. "Money, Income, Prices, and Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(3), pages 472-92, June.
  6. René Garcia, 1995. "Asymptotic Null Distribution of the Likelihood Ratio Test in Markov Switching Models," CIRANO Working Papers 95s-07, CIRANO.
  7. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1996. "The Financial Accelerator and the Flight to Quality," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 1-15, February.
  8. Cover, James Peery, 1992. "Asymmetric Effects of Positive and Negative Money-Supply Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(4), pages 1261-82, November.
  9. Thoma, Mark A., 1994. "Subsample instability and asymmetries in money-income causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1-2), pages 279-306.
  10. Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1992. "Asymmetric Price Adjustment and Economic Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 4089, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Mark L. Gertler, 1988. "Financial Structure and Aggregate Economic Activity: An Overview," NBER Working Papers 2559, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Ljungqvist, Lars, 1988. "Money does Granger-cause output in the bivariate money-output relation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 217-235, September.
  13. Ben S. Bernanke, 1990. "On the predictive power of interest rates and interest rate spreads," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Nov, pages 51-68.
  14. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
  15. Ben S. Bernanke, 1983. "Non-Monetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in the Propagation of the Great Depression," NBER Working Papers 1054, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Potter, Simon M, 1995. "A Nonlinear Approach to US GNP," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(2), pages 109-25, April-Jun.
  17. Allan D. Brunner, 1997. "On The Dynamic Properties Of Asymmetric Models Of Real GNP," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 321-352, May.
  18. Brunner, Allan D, 1992. "Conditional Asymmetries in Real GNP: A Seminonparametric Approach," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(1), pages 65-72, January.
  19. Brock, William A. & Sayers, Chera L., 1988. "Is the business cycle characterized by deterministic chaos?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 71-90, July.
  20. Allan D. Brunner, 1994. "The federal funds rate and the implementation of monetary policy: estimating the Federal Reserve's reaction function," International Finance Discussion Papers 466, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  21. Beaudry, Paul & Koop, Gary, 1993. "Do recessions permanently change output?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 149-163, April.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Mohd Zaini Abd Karim & Amy Azhar Mohd Harif & Azira Adziz, 2006. "Monetary Policy and Sectoral Bank Lending in Malaysia," Global Economic Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(3), pages 303-326.
  2. Tiff Macklem & Alain Paquet & Louis Phaneuf, 1996. "Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Policy: Evidence from the Yield Curve," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 42, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal.
  3. Chu, Joonsuk & Ratti, Ronald A., 1999. "On the relevance of distinctions between anticipated, unanticipated expansionary, and unanticipated contractionary monetary policy," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 109-131, March.

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