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Is there an asymmetric effect of monetary policy over time? A Bayesian analysis using Austrian data

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  • Sylvia Kaufmann

    ()
    (Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Economic Analysis Division, P.O. Box 61, A-1011 Vienna, and University of Vienna, Department of Economics, Hohenstaufengasse 9, A-1010 Vienna)

Abstract

The present paper assesses whether monetary policy effects are asymmetric over the business cycle by estimating a univariate model for GDP including additionally the first difference of the 3-month Austrian interest rate as a measure for monetary policy. The asymmetry of the effects is captured by allowing for state-dependent parameters where the latent state variable follows a Markov switching process. The model is estimated within a Bayesian framework using Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation methods. Model selection and specification tests are performed by means of marginal likelihood. The results document significant negative effects of monetary policy during periods of below-average growth, while the effect seems insignificant during periods of normal or above-average growth. These results corroborate those derived in theoretical models assuming price rigidities and implying a convex supply curve. Additionally, the concern of using appropriate state-identifying restrictions is raised to obtain an unbiased posterior inference. Finally, the analysis concludes by assessing the robustness of the results with respect to alternative measures of monetary policy.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Empirical Economics.

Volume (Year): 27 (2002)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 277-297

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Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:27:y:2002:i:2:p:277-297

Note: Received: December 2000/Final Version Received: May 2001
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Related research

Keywords: Asymmetry; monetary policy; Markov switching; Markov Chain Monte Carlo; marginal likelihood;

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Cited by:
  1. Castro, Vítor, 2008. "Are Central Banks following a linear or nonlinear (augmented) Taylor rule?," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 872, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  2. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Horváth, Roman & Horváthová, Eva, 2008. "Corporate Interest Rates and the Financial Accelerator in the Czech Republic," Discussion Papers in Economics 7191, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
  3. Zakaria Babutsidze, 2012. "Asymmetric (S,s) Pricing: Implications for Monetary Policy," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(5), pages 177-204.
  4. Binder, Michael & Gross, Marco, 2013. "Regime-switching global vector autoregressive models," Working Paper Series 1569, European Central Bank.
  5. Kuang-Liang Chang & Chi-Wei He, 2010. "Does The Magnitude Of The Effect Of Inflation Uncertainty On Output Growth Depend On The Level Of Inflation?," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 78(2), pages 126-148, 03.
  6. Sylvia Kaufmann, 2003. "The business cycle of European countries Bayesian clustering of country- individual IP growthseries," Working Papers 83, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  7. Fredj Jawadi & Sushanta K. Mallick & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2011. "Monetary Policy Rules in the BRICS: How Important is Nonlinearity?," NIPE Working Papers 18/2011, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.

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