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Do trade and financial linkages foster business cycle synchronization in a small economy?

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Author Info
Alicia García-Herrero () (BBVA)
Juan M. Ruiz () (Banco de España)

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Abstract

We estimate a system of equations to analyze whether bilateral trade and financial linkages influence business cycle synchronization directly and/or indirectly. Our paper builds upon the existing literature by using bilateral trade and financial flows for a small, open economy (Spain) as benchmark for the results, instead of the US as generally done in the literature. We find that both the similarity of productive structure and trade links promote the synchronization of cycles. However, bilateral financial links are inversely related to the co movement of output. This might point to financial integration allowing an easiertransfer of resources between two economies, which could enable their decoupling, as predicted by a standard model of international business cycles. Both the effects of trade and financial links on output synchronization are statistically significant and economically relevant.

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File URL: http://www.bde.es/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosTrabajo/08/Fic/dt0810e.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Banco de España in its series Banco de España Working Papers with number 0810.

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Length: 39 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2008
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Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:0810

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Related research
Keywords: business cycle synchronization; trade linkages; financial linkages; productive structure; integration;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies
E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    Other versions:
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  3. Jean Imbs, 2004. "Trade, Finance, Specialization, and Synchronization," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(3), pages 723-734, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(449), pages 1009-25, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Hali J. Edison & Michael W. Klein & Luca Ricci & Torsten Sloek, 2002. "Capital Account Liberalization and Economic Performance: Survey and Synthesis," NBER Working Papers 9100, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. M. Ayhan Kose & Eswar Prasad & Marco Terrones, 2003. "How Does Globalization Affect the Synchronization of Business Cycles?," IMF Working Papers 03/27, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Mico Loretan & William B. English, 2000. "Evaluating "correlation breakdowns" during periods of market volatility," International Finance Discussion Papers 658, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  12. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Bent E. Sorensen & Oved Yosha, 2000. "Risk sharing and industrial specialization ; regional and international evidence," Research Working Paper RWP 00-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J & Kydland, Finn E, 1992. "International Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(4), pages 745-75, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Kenneth Rogoff & M. Ayhan Kose & Eswar Prasad & Shang-Jin Wei, 2004. "Effects on Financial Globalization on Developing Countries: Some Empirical Evidence," IMF Occasional Papers 220, International Monetary Fund.
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Bank for International Settlements, 2008. "Why is there so little regional financial integration in Asia?," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Regional financial integration in Asia: present and future, volume 42, pages 38-61 Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
  2. Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem & Papaioannou, Elias & Peydró-Alcalde, José Luis, 2009. "Financial Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization," CEPR Discussion Papers 7292, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Tatiana Alonso Gispert, 2009. "Main sources of uncertainty in formulating potential growth scenarios for oil supply," Working Papers 905, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  4. Kingsley I. Obiora, 2009. "Decoupling from the East Toward the West? Analyses of Spillovers to the Baltic Countries," IMF Working Papers 09/125, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  5. J.E. Boscá & R. Doménech & J. Ferri, 2009. "Tax Reforms and Labour-market Performance: An Evaluation for Spain using REMS," Working Papers 908, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Elias Papaioannou & José Luis Peydró, 2009. "Financial Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization," NBER Working Papers 14887, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Christian Ariel Volpe Martincus & Andrea Molinari, 2005. "Regional Business Cycles and National Economic Borders - What are the Effects of Trade in Developing Countries?," ERSA conference papers ersa05p93, European Regional Science Association. [Downloadable!]
  8. J.E. Boscá & R. Doménech & J. Ferri, 2009. "Search, Nash Bargaining and Rule of Thumb Consumers," Working Papers 910, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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