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Do trade and financial linkages foster business cycle synchronization in a small economy?

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  • Alicia García-Herrero

    ()
    (BBVA)

  • Juan M. Ruiz

    ()
    (Banco de España)

Abstract

We estimate a system of equations to analyze whether bilateral trade and financial linkages influence business cycle synchronization directly and/or indirectly. Our paper builds upon the existing literature by using bilateral trade and financial flows for a small, open economy (Spain) as benchmark for the results, instead of the US as generally done in the literature. We find that both the similarity of productive structure and trade links promote the synchronization of cycles. However, bilateral financial links are inversely related to the co movement of output. This might point to financial integration allowing an easiertransfer of resources between two economies, which could enable their decoupling, as predicted by a standard model of international business cycles. Both the effects of trade and financial links on output synchronization are statistically significant and economically relevant.

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File URL: http://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosTrabajo/08/Fic/dt0810e.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Banco de Espa�a in its series Banco de Espa�a Working Papers with number 0810.

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Length: 39 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:0810

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Keywords: business cycle synchronization; trade linkages; financial linkages; productive structure; integration;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem & Papaioannou, Elias & Peydró-Alcalde, José Luis, 2009. "Financial Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization," CEPR Discussion Papers 7292, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Stefano Magrini & Margherita Gerolimetto & Hasan Engin Duran, 2011. "Understanding the lead/lag structure among regional business cycles," Working Papers 2011_06, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
  3. Marek Lubiński, 2007. "International Business Cycle," Contemporary Economics, University of Finance and Management in Warsaw, vol. 1(2), June.
  4. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Elias Papaioannou & José Luis Peydró, 2009. "Financial Regulation, Financial Globalization and the Synchronization of Economic Activity," NBER Working Papers 14887, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Moneta, Fabio & Rüffer, Rasmus, 2006. "Business cycle synchronisation in East Asia," Working Paper Series 0671, European Central Bank.
  6. Stéphane Dées & Nico Zorell, 2012. "Business Cycle Synchronisation: Disentangling Trade and Financial Linkages," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 623-643, September.
  7. Christian Volpe Martincus & Andrea Molinari, 2007. "Regional Business Cycles and National Economic Borders: What Are the Effects of Trade in Developing Countries?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 143(1), pages 140-178, April.
  8. Bank for International Settlements, 2008. "Why is there so little regional financial integration in Asia?," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Regional financial integration in Asia: present and future, volume 42, pages 38-61 Bank for International Settlements.
  9. LSE Enterprise, 2011. "Study on the impact of the single market on cohesion: implications for cohesion policy, growth and competitiveness," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 42840, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  10. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Elias Papaioannou & Fabrizio Perri, 2012. "Global Banks and Crisis Transmission," NBER Working Papers 18209, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. International Monetary Fund, 2009. "Decoupling from the East Toward the West? Analyses of Spillovers to the Baltic Countries," IMF Working Papers 09/125, International Monetary Fund.
  12. Pami Dua & Vineeta Sharma, 2013. "Measurement And Patterns Of International Synchronization-- A Spectral Approach," Working papers 224, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
  13. Bos Jaap W.B. & Economidou Claire & Zhang Lu, 2011. "Specialization in the Presence of Trade and Financial Integration: Explorations of the Integration-Specialization Nexus," Research Memorandum 026, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
  14. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Elias Papaioannou & José Luis Peydró, 2010. "Financial Regulation, Integration and Synchronization of Economic Activity," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1005, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum, revised Apr 2010.
  15. Nikolaos Antonakakis & Gabriele Tondl, 2011. "Has Integration Promoted Business Cycle Synchronization in the Enlarged EU?," FIW Working Paper series 075, FIW.
  16. Kingsley I. Obiora, 2010. "Do countries catch cold when trading partners sneeze? Evidence from spillovers in the Baltics," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 34(2), pages 143-160.
  17. Bojeşteanu, Elena & Manu, Ana Simona, 2011. "Analiza empirică a sincronizării ciclului de afaceri şi a similarităţii şocurilor între România şi zona euro
    [Empirical analysis of business cycle synchronization and shock similarity betw
    ," MPRA Paper 31295, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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