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A Gravity Model of Sovereign Lending: Trade, Default, and Credit

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  • Andrew K. Rose

    (International Monetary Fund)

  • Mark M. Spiegel

    (International Monetary Fund)

Abstract

One reason why countries service their external debts is the fear that default might lead to shrinkage of international trade. If so, then creditors should systematically lend more to countries with which they share closer trade links. We develop a simple theoretical model to capture this intuition, then test and corroborate this idea.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Palgrave Macmillan in its journal Staff Papers - International Monetary Fund.

Volume (Year): 51 (2004)
Issue (Month): s1 (June)
Pages: 50-63

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Handle: RePEc:pal:imfstp:v:51:y:2004:i:s1:p:50-63

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  1. Jeremy Bulow & Kenneth Rogoff, 1998. "Sovereign Debt: Is to Forgive to Forget," Levine's Working Paper Archive 209, David K. Levine.
  2. Andrew K. Rose, 2002. "One Reason Countries Pay Their Debts: Renegotiation and International Trade," Working Papers, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research 042002, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  3. Kenneth M. Kletzer and Brian D. Wright., 1998. "Sovereign Debt as Intertemporal Barter," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers, University of California at Berkeley C98-100, University of California at Berkeley.
  4. Bulow, Jeremy & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1989. "A Constant Recontracting Model of Sovereign Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(1), pages 155-78, February.
  5. Ozler, Sule, 1993. "Have Commercial Banks Ignored History?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 608-20, June.
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