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Financial Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization

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Author Info
Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem
Papaioannou, Elias
Peydró-Alcalde, José Luis
Abstract

Standard theory predicts that financial integration leads to a lower degree of business cycle synchronization. Surprisingly, cross-country studies find the opposite. Our contribution is to document the theoretically predicted negative effect of financial integration on business cycle synchronization as a robust regularity. We use a confidential dataset on banks' international bilateral exposure over the past three decades in a panel of twenty developed countries. The rich panel structure allows us to control for time-invariant country-pair factors and global trends that affect both financial integration and business cycle patterns. In contrast to previous empirical work we find that a higher degree of financial integration is associated with less synchronized output cycles. We also employ two distinct instrumental variable approaches to identify the one-way effect of integration on synchronization. These specifications reveal that the component of banking integration predicted by legislative-regulatory harmonization policies and the nature of the bilateral exchange rate regime has a negative effect on output synchronization.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 7292.

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Date of creation: May 2009
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:7292

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Related research
Keywords: Banks; Business Cycles; Co-movement; Financial Integration; Financial Regulation;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Mortgages
O16 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment

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