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Financial Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization

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  • Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem
  • Papaioannou, Elias
  • Peydró-Alcalde, José Luis

Abstract

Standard theory predicts that financial integration leads to a lower degree of business cycle synchronization. Surprisingly, cross-country studies find the opposite. Our contribution is to document the theoretically predicted negative effect of financial integration on business cycle synchronization as a robust regularity. We use a confidential dataset on banks' international bilateral exposure over the past three decades in a panel of twenty developed countries. The rich panel structure allows us to control for time-invariant country-pair factors and global trends that affect both financial integration and business cycle patterns. In contrast to previous empirical work we find that a higher degree of financial integration is associated with less synchronized output cycles. We also employ two distinct instrumental variable approaches to identify the one-way effect of integration on synchronization. These specifications reveal that the component of banking integration predicted by legislative-regulatory harmonization policies and the nature of the bilateral exchange rate regime has a negative effect on output synchronization.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 7292.

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Date of creation: May 2009
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:7292

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Keywords: Banks; Business Cycles; Co-movement; Financial Integration; Financial Regulation;

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Cited by:
  1. Erden, Lutfi & Ozkan, Ibrahim, 2014. "Determinants of international transmission of business cycles to Turkish economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 383-390.
  2. Flood, Robert P & Rose, Andrew K, 2009. "Inflation Targeting and Business Cycle Synchronization," CEPR Discussion Papers 7377, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Korhonen, Iikka, 2010. "The impact of the global financial crisis on business cycles in Asian emerging economies," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 293-303, June.
  4. Jes?s Crespo-Cuaresma & Octavio Fern?ndez-Amador, 2010. "Business cycle convergence in EMU: A first look at the second moment," Working Papers 2010-22, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, University of Innsbruck.
  5. Jean Imbs, 2010. "The First Global Recession in Decades," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 58(2), pages 327-354, December.
  6. Dées, Stéphane & Zorell, Nico, 2011. "Business cycle synchronisation: disentangling trade and financial linkages," Working Paper Series 1322, European Central Bank.
  7. Scott Davis, 2011. "Financial integration and international business cycle co-movement: the role of balance sheets," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 89, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

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