Trade and business cycle synchronization in OECD countries--A re-examination
AbstractThis paper re-examines the relationship between trade intensity and business cycle synchronization for 21 OECD countries in the period 1970-2003. Instead of using instrumental variables, we estimate a multivariate model including variables capturing specialization and similarity of economic policies. We confirm that trade intensity affects synchronization, but the effect is much smaller than previously reported. Other factors, like specialization and convergence in monetary and fiscal policies, have a similar impact on business cycle synchronization as trade intensity. The effect of trade on synchronization is not driven by outliers. However, the impact of trade on synchronization is not robust across deciles.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal European Economic Review.
Volume (Year): 52 (2008)
Issue (Month): 4 (May)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eer
Other versions of this item:
- Robert Inklaar & Richard Jong-A-Pin & Jakob de Haan, 2005. "Trade and Business Cycle Synchronization in OECD Countries - a Re-examination," CESifo Working Paper Series 1546, CESifo Group Munich.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Todd E. Clark & Eric van Wincoop, 1999.
"Borders and business cycles,"
91, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Baxter, Marianne & Kouparitsas, Michael A., 2005.
"Determinants of business cycle comovement: a robust analysis,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 113-157, January.
- Marianne Baxter & Michael A. Kouparitsas, 2004. "Determinants of Business Cycle Comovement: A Robust Analysis," NBER Working Papers 10725, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Marianne Baxter & Michael Kouparitsas, 2004. "Determinants of business cycle comovement: a robust analysis," Working Paper Series WP-04-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Paul de Grauwe & Francesco Paolo Mongelli, 2005.
"Endogeneities of Optimum Currency Areas: What brings Countries Sharing a Single Currency Closer together?,"
Working Papers de Economia (Economics Working Papers)
29, Departamento de Economia, Gestão e Engenharia Industrial, Universidade de Aveiro.
- De Grauwe, Paul & Mongelli, Francesco Paolo, 2005. "Endogeneities of optimum currency areas: what brings countries sharing a single currency closer together?," Working Paper Series 0468, European Central Bank.
- Lane, Philip & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, . "External Wealth of Nations," Instructional Stata datasets for econometrics extwealth, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999.
"Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
- Tom Doan, . "BKFILTER: RATS procedure to implement band pass filter using Baxter-King method," Statistical Software Components RTS00026, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1995. "Measuring Business Cycles Approximate Band-Pass Filters for Economic Time Series," NBER Working Papers 5022, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bergman, Michael, 2004. "How Similar Are European Business Cycles?," Working Papers 2004:9, Lund University, Department of Economics.
- James Mitchell & Michael Massmann, 2004.
"Reconsidering the evidence: are Eurozone business cycles converging?,"
Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003
67, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
- Massmann, Michael & Mitchell, James, 2003. "Reconsidering the evidence: Are Eurozone business cycles converging," ZEI Working Papers B 05-2003, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn.
- Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1998.
"The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(449), pages 1009-25, July.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1996. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," NBER Working Papers 5700, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1996. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," CEPR Discussion Papers 1473, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1991.
"A sensitivity analysis of cross-country growth regressions,"
Policy Research Working Paper Series
609, The World Bank.
- Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1992. "A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-Country Growth Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 942-63, September.
- Jakob de Haan & Sylvester C. W. Eijffinger & Sandra Waller, 2005. "The European Central Bank: Credibility, Transparency, and Centralization," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262042266, December.
- Rose, Andrew K & Engel, Charles, 2002.
"Currency Unions and International Integration,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(4), pages 1067-89, November.
- Andrew K. Rose & Charles Engel, 2000. "Currency Unions and International Integration," NBER Working Papers 7872, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Engel, Charles M & Rose, Andrew K, 2001. "Currency Unions and International Integration," CEPR Discussion Papers 2659, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Glenn Otto & Graham Voss & Luke Willard, 2001. "Understanding OECD Output Correlations," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2001-05, Reserve Bank of Australia.
- Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2004.
"Are European business cycles close enough to be just one?,"
Computing in Economics and Finance 2004
16, Society for Computational Economics.
- Camacho, Maximo & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel & Saiz, Lorena, 2006. "Are European business cycles close enough to be just one?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(9-10), pages 1687-1706.
- Camacho, Maximo & Pérez-Quirós, Gabriel & Sáiz Matute, Lorena, 2005. "Are European Business Cycles Close Enough to be Just One?," CEPR Discussion Papers 4824, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Máximo Camacho & Gabriel Pérez-Quirós & Lorena Saiz, 2004. "Are european business cycles close enough to be just one?," Banco de Espaï¿½a Working Papers 0408, Banco de Espa�a.
- Beck, Thorsten & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Levine, Ross, 1999.
"A new database on financial development and structure,"
Policy Research Working Paper Series
2146, The World Bank.
- Beck, T.H.L. & Demirgüç-Kunt, A. & Levine, R., 2000. "A new database on financial development and structure," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-3125518, Tilburg University.
- César Calderón & Alberto Chong & Ernesto H. Stein, 2003.
"Trade Intensity and Business Cycle Synchronization: Are Developing Countries any Different?,"
Research Department Publications
4315, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
- Calderon, Cesar & Chong, Alberto & Stein, Ernesto, 2007. "Trade intensity and business cycle synchronization: Are developing countries any different?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 2-21, March.
- César Calderón & Alberto Chong & Ernesto Stein, 2002. "Trade Intensity and Business Cycle Synchronization: Are Developing Countries Any Different?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 195, Central Bank of Chile.
- Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1997.
"I Just Ran Two Million Regressions,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 178-83, May.
- Koenker,Roger, 2005.
Cambridge University Press, number 9780521845731, October.
- Leamer, Edward E, 1983.
"Let's Take the Con Out of Econometrics,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 31-43, March.
- Grubel, Herbert G & Lloyd, P J, 1971. "The Empirical Measurement of Intra- Industry Trade," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 47(120), pages 494-517, December.
- Artis, Michael J & Zhang, W, 1997.
"International Business Cycles and the ERM: Is There a European Business Cycle?,"
International Journal of Finance & Economics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(1), pages 1-16, January.
- Artis, Michael J & Zhang, Wenda, 1995. "International Business Cycles and the ERM: Is there a European Business Cycle?," CEPR Discussion Papers 1191, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Koenker, Roger W & Bassett, Gilbert, Jr, 1978. "Regression Quantiles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 33-50, January.
- William C. Gruben & Jahyeong Koo & Eric Millis, 2002. "How much does international trade affect business cycle synchronization ?," Working Papers 0203, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Frankel, Jeffrey, 2004. "Real Convergence and Euro Adoption in Central and Eastern Europe: Trade and Business Cycle Correlations as Endogenous Criteria for Joining EMU," Working Paper Series rwp04-039, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
- U. Michael Bergman, 2004. "How Similar Are European Business Cycles?," EPRU Working Paper Series 04-13, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics, revised Nov 2004.
- Michael Artis, 2003. "Is there a European Business Cycle?," CESifo Working Paper Series 1053, CESifo Group Munich.
- Jan- Sturm & Jakob de Haan, 2005. "Determinants of long-term growth: New results applying robust estimation and extreme bounds analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 597-617, October.
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page. reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.