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Dissecting the Effect of Credit Supply on Trade: Evidence from Matched Credit-Export Data

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Author Info

  • Veronica Rappoport

    (Columbia GSB)

  • Philipp Schnabl

    (NYU Stern)

  • Daniel Wolfenzon

    (Columbia GSB)

  • Daniel Paravisini

    (Columbia GSB)

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    Abstract

    In this paper we estimate the elasticity of exports to credit shocks. As a source of variation, we exploit the disproportionate reduction in credit supply by banks with high share of foreign liabilities during the 2008 financial crisis. Using matched customs and firm-level bank credit data from Peru, we compare changes in exports of the same product and to the same destination by firms borrowing from different banks, which allows us to account for variation in non-credit determinants of exports. On the intensive margin, the elasticity of exports to credit is 0.23, and it is relatively constant across firms of different size, industry, and other observable characteristics. We find that both the frequency and average size of shipments are sensitive to credit shocks. On the extensive margin, the elasticity of the number of firms that continue supplying a product-destination export market is 0.36, but credit has no effect on the number of entrants. The estimated elasticities imply that the negative credit supply shock accounts for 15% of the drop in Peruvian exports during the financial crisis.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Society for Economic Dynamics in its series 2011 Meeting Papers with number 180.

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    Date of creation: 2011
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    Handle: RePEc:red:sed011:180

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    Cited by:
    1. Christian Volpe Martincus & Juan S. Blyde, 2012. "Shaky Roads and Trembling Exports: Assessing the Trade Effects of Domestic Infrastructure Using a Natural Experiment," IDB Publications 82533, Inter-American Development Bank.
    2. Michalski, Tomasz & Örs, Evren, 2010. "(Inter-state) Banking and (Inter-state) Trade: Does Real Integration Follow Financial Integration?," CEPR Discussion Papers 7963, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Bricongne, Jean-Charles & Fontagné, Lionel & Gaulier, Guillaume & Taglioni, Daria & Vicard, Vincent, 2010. "Firms and the global crisis: French exports in the turmoil," Working Paper Series 1245, European Central Bank.
    4. HOSONO Kaoru & TAKIZAWA Miho & TSURU Kotaro, 2013. "International Transmission of the 2008-09 Financial Crisis: Evidence from Japan," Discussion papers 13010, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    5. Hosono, Kaoru & Miyakawa, Daisuke & Uchino, Taisuke & Hazama, Makoto & Ono, Arito & Uchida, Hirofumi & Uesugi, Iichiro, 2012. "Natural Disasters, Damage to Banks, and Firm Investment," Working Paper Series 18, Center for Interfirm Network, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    6. Ari Aisen & Roberto Álvarez & Andrés Sagner & Javier Turén, 2011. "Credit Contraction and International Trade: Evidence from Chilean Exporters," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 639, Central Bank of Chile.
    7. Stijn Claessens & Hui Tong & Shang-Jin Wei, 2011. "From the Financial Crisis to the Real Economy: Using Firm-level Data to Identify Transmission Channels," NBER Chapters, in: Global Financial Crisis National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Molina, Danielken & Roa, Monica, 2014. "The Effect of Credit on the Export Performance of Colombian Exporters," MPRA Paper 56137, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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