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Time to Ship during Financial Crises

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  • Nicolas Berman
  • Jos� de Sousa
  • Philippe Martin
  • Thierry Mayer

Abstract

We show that the negative impact of financial crises on trade is magnified for destinations with longer time-to-ship. A simple model where exporters react to an increase in the probability of default of importers by increasing their export price and decreasing their export volumes to destinations in crisis is consistent with this empirical finding. For longer shipping time, those effects are indeed magnified as the probability of default increases as time passes. Some exporters also decide to stop exporting to the crisis destination, the more so the longer time-to-ship. Using aggregate data from 1950 to 2009, we find that this magnification effect is robust to alternative specifications, samples and inclusion of additional controls, including distance. The firm level predictions are also broadly consistent with French exporter data from 1995 to 2005.

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File URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/full/10.1086/669587
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by University of Chicago Press in its journal NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics.

Volume (Year): 9 (2013)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 225 - 260

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Handle: RePEc:ucp:intsma:doi:10.1086/669587

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References

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  1. Soledad Zignago & Thierry Mayer, 2005. "Market Access in Global and Regional Trade," Sciences Po publications 2005-02, Sciences Po.
  2. Kalina Manova & Zhiwei Zhang, 2012. "Export Prices Across Firms and Destinations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 127(1), pages 379-436.
  3. Scott L. Baier & Jeffrey H. Bergstrand, 2005. "Do free trade agreements actually increase members’ international trade?," Working Paper 2005-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  4. Julien Martin, 2010. "Markups, Quality and Transport Costs," Working Papers 2010-17, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique.
  5. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2011. "From Financial Crash to Debt Crisis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 1676-1706, August.
  6. Davin Chor & Kalina Manova, 2010. "Off the Cliff and Back? Credit Conditions and International Trade during the Global Financial Crisis," Working Papers 08-2010, Singapore Management University, School of Economics.
  7. Andrei A. Levchenko & Logan T. Lewis & Linda L. Tesar, 2010. "The Role of Financial Factors in the Trade Collapse: A Skeptic's View," Working Papers 616, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
  8. Samuel S. Kortum & Jonathan Eaton & Brent Neiman & John Romalis, 2010. "Trade and the Global Recession," DEGIT Conference Papers c015_002, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
  9. Bricongne, J-C. & Fontagné, L. & Gaulier, G. & Taglioni, D. & Vicard, V., 2009. "Firms and the global crisis: French exports in the turmoil," Working papers 265, Banque de France.
  10. Tim Schmidt-Eisenlohr, 2011. "Towards a Theory of Trade Finance," Economics Series Working Papers 583, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  11. George Alessandria & Joseph P. Kaboski & Virgiliu Midrigan, 2010. "The great trade collapse of 2008-2009: an inventory adjustment?," Working Papers 10-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  12. Andrei A. Levchenko & Logan T. Lewis & Linda L. Tesar, 2010. "The Collapse of International Trade During the 2008-2009 Crisis: In Search of the Smoking Gun," NBER Working Papers 16006, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Hélène Rey & Philippe Martin, 2006. "Globalization and Emerging Markets: With or Without Crash?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(5), pages 1631-1651, December.
  14. Nicolas Berman & Philippe Martin, 2012. "The Vulnerability of Sub-Saharan Africa to Financial Crises: The Case of Trade," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 60(3), pages 329-364, September.
  15. Paulo Guimarães & Pedro Portugal, 2009. "A Simple Feasible Alternative Procedure to Estimate Models with High-Dimensional Fixed Effects," Working Papers w200909, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  16. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/9261 is not listed on IDEAS
  17. JaeBin Ahn, 2011. "A Theory of Domestic and International Trade Finance," IMF Working Papers 11/262, International Monetary Fund.
  18. Virgiliu Midrigan & Joseph Kaboski & George Alessandria, 2010. "The Great Trade Collapse of 2008-09: An Inventory Adjustment?," 2010 Meeting Papers 107, Society for Economic Dynamics.
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Cited by:
  1. Pauline Bourgeon & Jean-Charles Bricongne & Guillaume Gaulier, 2012. "Financing Time to Trade: Evidence from French firms," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 12016, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
  2. Martin, Philippe & Mayer, Thierry & Mayneris, Florian, 2013. "Are clusters more resilient in crises? Evidence from French exporters in 2008-2009," CEPR Discussion Papers 9667, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Nicolas Berman & Philippe Martin, 2012. "The Vulnerability of Sub-Saharan Africa to Financial Crises: The Case of Trade," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 60(3), pages 329-364, September.
  4. repec:hal:journl:halshs-00677343 is not listed on IDEAS
  5. Rudolfs Bems & Robert C. Johnson & Kei-Mu Yi, 2012. "The Great Trade Collapse," NBER Working Papers 18632, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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