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Time to ship during financial crises

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  • Nicolas Berman
  • José de Sousa
  • Philippe Martin
  • Thierry Mayer

Abstract

We show that the negative impact of financial crises on trade is magnified for destinations with longer time-to-ship. A simple model where exporters react to an increase in the probability of default of importers by increasing their export price and decreasing their export volumes to destinations in crisis is consistent with this empirical finding. For longer shipping time, those effects are indeed magnified as the probability of default increases as time passes. Some exporters also decide to stop exporting to the crisis destination, the more so the longer time-to-ship. Using aggregate data from 1950 to 2009, we find that this magnification effect is robust to alternative specifications, samples and inclusion of additional controls, including distance. The firm level predictions are also broadly consistent with French exporter data from 1995 to 2005.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CEPII research center in its series Working Papers with number 2012-25.

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Date of creation: Oct 2012
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Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2012-25

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Keywords: Time-to-ship; Financial crises; international trade;

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References

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  1. Martin, Philippe & Rey, Hélène, 2005. "Globalization and Emerging Markets: With or Without Crash?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5165, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Tim Schmidt-Eisenlohr, 2009. "Towards a Theory of Trade Finance," Economics Working Papers ECO2009/43, European University Institute.
  3. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/9261 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2011. "From Financial Crash to Debt Crisis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 1676-1706, August.
  5. George Alessandria & Joseph P. Kaboski & Virgiliu Midrigan, 2010. "The Great Trade Collapse of 2008-09: An Inventory Adjustment?," NBER Working Papers 16059, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Davin Chor & Kalina Manova, 2010. "Off the Cliff and Back? Credit Conditions and International Trade during the Global Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 16174, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Scott L. Baier & Jeffrey H. Bergstrand, 2005. "Do free trade agreements actually increase members’ international trade?," Working Paper 2005-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  8. de Sousa, J. & Mayer, T. & Zignago, S., 2011. "Market access in global and regional trade," Working papers 358, Banque de France.
  9. Logan Lewis & Linda Tesar & Andrei Levchenko, 2010. "The Collapse of International Trade During the 2008-2009 Crisis: In Search of the Smoking Gun," 2010 Meeting Papers 109, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  10. Sam Kortum & John Romalis & Brent Neiman & Jonathan Eaton, 2010. "Trade and the Global Recession," 2010 Meeting Papers 1340, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  11. Julien Martin, 2009. "Spatial Price Discrimination in International Markets," Working Papers 2009-21, CEPII research center.
  12. Kalina Manova & Zhiwei Zhang, 2012. "Export Prices Across Firms and Destinations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 127(1), pages 379-436.
  13. Paulo Guimarães & Pedro Portugal, 2009. "A Simple Feasible Alternative Procedure to Estimate Models with High-Dimensional Fixed Effects," Working Papers w200909, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  14. Bricongne, J-C. & Fontagné, L. & Gaulier, G. & Taglioni, D. & Vicard, V., 2009. "Firms and the global crisis: French exports in the turmoil," Working papers 265, Banque de France.
  15. Nicolas Berman & Philippe Martin, 2012. "The Vulnerability of Sub-Saharan Africa to Financial Crises: The Case of Trade," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 60(3), pages 329-364, September.
  16. Martin, Julien, 2012. "Markups, quality, and transport costs," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 777-791.
  17. George Alessandria & Joseph P. Kaboski & Virgiliu Midrigan, 2010. "The great trade collapse of 2008-2009: an inventory adjustment?," Working Papers 10-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  18. Andrei A. Levchenko & Logan T. Lewis & Linda L. Tesar, 2010. "The Role of Financial Factors in the Trade Collapse: A Skeptic's View," Working Papers 616, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
  19. JaeBin Ahn, 2011. "A Theory of Domestic and International Trade Finance," IMF Working Papers 11/262, International Monetary Fund.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Philippe MARTIN & Thierry MAYER & Florian MAYNERIS, 2013. "Are clusters more resilient in crises? Evidence from French exporters in 2008-2009," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2013026, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
  2. Rudolfs Bems & Robert C. Johnson & Kei-Mu Yi, 2012. "The Great Trade Collapse," NBER Working Papers 18632, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Pauline Bourgeon & Jean-Charles Bricongne & Guillaume Gaulier, 2012. "Financing time to trade : Evidence from French firms," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00677343, HAL.
  4. repec:hal:journl:halshs-00677343 is not listed on IDEAS
  5. Nicolas Berman & Philippe Martin, 2012. "The Vulnerability of Sub-Saharan Africa to Financial Crises: The Case of Trade," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 60(3), pages 329-364, September.

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