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The UK Intranational Trade Cycle

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  • Michael Artis

    (University of Manchester (UK) and CEPR (UK))

  • Toshihiro Okubo

    (Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration (RIEB), Kobe University, Japan)

Abstract

The paper uses annual data on real GDP for the UK regions and 12 manufacturing sectors to derive regional and regional/sectoral business cycles using an H-P filter. The cohesion of the cycles is examined via cross-correlations and comparisons made with the regional cycles for Japan, the United States and the EuroArea. The UK emerges as especially cohesive and efforts to explain the overall cross-correlations of regional GDP not very successful owing to the low variance of the explicand; when attention is turned to the sectoral/regional cycles, with their greater variance it is possible to demonstrate that economic variables such as distance, dissimilarity in structure and level of output play a significant role in explaining the variance in the cross-correlations. A significant feature of the cross-correlations in relation to those of EU countries is that whilst they continue to provide support for the "UK idiosyncrasy" they no longer do so as strongly as they did in earlier data samples.

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File URL: http://www.rieb.kobe-u.ac.jp/academic/ra/dp/English/dp234.pdf
File Function: First version, 2009
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University in its series Discussion Paper Series with number 234.

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Length: 45 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:kob:dpaper:234

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Keywords: Intranational business cycle; Regional business cycles; Income convergence; Hodrick-Prescott filter; Euro-sympathy;

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  1. Hess, Gregory D & Shin, Kwanho, 1997. "International and Intranational Business Cycles," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 13(3), pages 93-109, Autumn.
  2. Andrew B. Bernard & Steven N. Durlauf, 1994. "Interpreting Tests of the Convergence Hypothesis," NBER Technical Working Papers 0159, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. S Barrios & M Brülhart & R Elliott & M Sensier, 2001. "A Tale of Two Cycles: Co-fluctuations Between UK Regions and the Euro Zone," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 0101, Economics, The University of Manchester.
  4. Burnside, Craig, 1998. "Detrending and business cycle facts: A comment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 513-532, May.
  5. Uhlig, H.F.H.V.S. & Ravn, M., 1997. "On Adjusting the H-P Filter for the Frequency of Observations," Discussion Paper 1997-50, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  6. Peter Pedroni & James Yudong Yao, 2005. "Regional Income Divergence in China," Department of Economics Working Papers 2005-03, Department of Economics, Williams College.
  7. Harvey, A C & Jaeger, A, 1993. "Detrending, Stylized Facts and the Business Cycle," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(3), pages 231-47, July-Sept.
  8. Canova, Fabio, 1998. "Detrending and business cycle facts: A user's guide," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 533-540, May.
  9. Wynne, Mark A & Koo, Jahyeong, 2000. "Business Cycles under Monetary Union: A Comparison of the EU and US," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 67(267), pages 347-74, August.
  10. Hess, Gregory D. & Shin, Kwanho, 1998. "Intranational business cycles in the United States," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 289-313, April.
  11. Michael Artis, 2002. "Dating the Business Cycle in Britain," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 182(1), pages 90-95, October.
  12. Robert J. Hodrick & Edward Prescott, 1981. "Post-War U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Discussion Papers 451, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  13. Forni, Mario & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1998. "Let's Get Real: A Factor Analytical Approach to Disaggregated Business Cycle Dynamics," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(3), pages 453-73, July.
  14. Michael Artis & Toshihiro Okubo, 2008. "The Intranational Business Cycle: Evidence from Japan," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 101, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
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