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The Intranational Business Cycle in Japan

Author

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  • Michael Artis

    (Swansea University (UK) and CEPR (UK))

  • Toshihiro Okubo

    (Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration (RIEB), Kobe University, Japan)

Abstract

This paper studies the intranational business cycle - that is the set of regional (prefectural) business cycles - in Japan. One reason for choosing to examine the Japanese case is that long time series of relatively detailed data are available. A Hodrick-Prescott filter is applied to identify cycles in annual data from 1955 to 1995 and bilateral cross-correlations of prefectural GDPs are calculated for all pairs of prefectures, in our results we find fairly high cross-correlations. The paper then turns to an econometric explanation of the cross-correlation coefficients in the augmented gravity model framework. Two prefectures with similar GDPs and a shorter distance between them lead to business cycle synchronization whilst those with larger regional gaps in factor endowments (capital, labor and human capital) result in more idiosyncratic business cycle.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Artis & Toshihiro Okubo, 2010. "The Intranational Business Cycle in Japan," Discussion Paper Series DP2010-19, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
    • Handle: RePEc:kob:dpaper:dp2010-19
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    File URL: https://www.rieb.kobe-u.ac.jp/academic/ra/dp/English/DP2010-19.pdf
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    Cited by:

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    2. Stefano Magrini & Margherita Gerolimetto & Hasan Engin Duran, 2011. "Understanding the lead/lag structure among regional business cycles," Working Papers 2011_06, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    3. Tomomi Miyazaki, 2018. "Interactions between regional public and private investment: evidence from Japanese prefectures," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 60(1), pages 195-211, January.
    4. Mejía-Reyes, Pablo & Rendón-Rojas, Liliana & Vergara-González, Reyna & Aroca, Patricio, 2018. "International synchronization of the Mexican states business cycles: Explaining factors," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 278-288.
    5. Hasan Engin Duran, 2015. "Dynamics of Business Cycle Synchronization within Turkey," Working Papers 2015/01, Turkish Economic Association.
    6. Yamada, Tomoaki, 2014. "A note on risk sharing against idiosyncratic shocks and geographic mobility in Japan," MPRA Paper 54886, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Masaru Inaba & Keisuke Otsu, 2016. "Regional Business Cycle and Growth Features of Japan," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1005, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    8. Asako, Kazumi & Onodera, Takashi & Ueda, Atsuko, 2014. "An Analysis of Regional Business Cycles using Prefectural Composite Indexes in Japan," Discussion Paper Series 603, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    9. Tomomi Miyazaki & Haruo Kondoh, 2017. "Local Public Investment and Regional Business Cycle Fluctuations in Japan," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(1), pages 402-410.
    10. repec:kob:wpaper:1624 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Magrini Stefano & Gerolimetto Margherita & Duran Hasan Engin, 2013. "Business cycle dynamics across the US states," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 13(1), pages 1-28, April.
    12. López, María del Carmen Delgado & Fonseca-Zendejas, Alejandro Steven, 2023. "Analysis of the intersectoral synchronization of the Mexican economy," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 225-235.
    13. Huang, Shuo & Fidrmuc, Jan & Fidrmuc, Jarko, 2015. "Whither China? Reform and economic integration among Chinese regions," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 94-110.
    14. Makoto Muto & Tamotsu Onozaki & Yoshitaka Saiki, 2023. "Regional Synchronization during Economic Contraction: The Case of the U.S. and Japan," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(30), pages 3472-3486, June.
    15. Gómez-Zaldívar, Manuel & Garcia-Barragan, Fernando, 2022. "Trade Integration and Intra-national Business Cycle Synchronization: Evidence from Mexico’s States from 1980 to 2019," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 37(2), pages 216-234.
    16. Hazem Krichene & Abhijit Chakraborty & Hiroyasu Inoue & Yoshi Fujiwara, 2017. "Business cycles’ correlation and systemic risk of the Japanese supplier-customer network," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(10), pages 1-22, October.
    17. Miyazaki, Tomomi, 2013. "Fiscal Policy and Regional Business Cycle Fluctuations in Japan," Discussion Paper Series 583, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    18. Funashima, Yoshito & Horiba, Isao & Miyahara, Shoichi, 2015. "Local Government Investments and Ineffectiveness of Fiscal Stimulus during Japan's Lost Decades," MPRA Paper 61333, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Intranational business cycle; Hodrick-Prescott filter; Optimal Currency Area; Gravity Model; Heckscher-Ohlin theorem;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes

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