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The UK Intranational Trade Cycle

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  • Michael Artis
  • Toshihiro Okubo

Abstract

The paper uses annual data on real GDP for the UK regions and 12 manufacturing sectors to derive regional and regional/sectoral business cycles using an H-P filter. The cohesion of the cycles is examined via cross-correlations and comparisons made with the regional cycles for Japan, the United States and the EuroArea. The UK emerges as especially cohesive and efforts to explain the overall cross-correlations of regional GDP not very successful owing to the low variance of the explicand; when attention is turned to the sectoral/regional cycles, with their greater variance it is possible to demonstrate that economic variables such as distance, dissimilarity in structure and level of output play a significant role in explaining the variance in the cross-correlations. A significant feature of the cross-correlations in relation to those of EU countries is that whilst they continue to provide support for the “UK idiosyncrasy” they no longer do so as strongly as they did in earlier data samples.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester in its series Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series with number 111.

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Length: 46 pages
Date of creation: 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:man:cgbcrp:111

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References

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  1. Michael Artis & Toshihiro Okubo, 2008. "The Intranational Business Cycle: Evidence from Japan," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester 101, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
  2. Canova, Fabio, 1998. "Detrending and business cycle facts: A user's guide," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 533-540, May.
  3. Ravn, Morten O. & Uhlig, Harald, 2001. "On Adjusting the HP-Filter for the Frequency of Observations," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 2858, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Hess, Gregory D. & Shin, Kwanho, 1998. "Intranational business cycles in the United States," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 289-313, April.
  5. S Barrios & M Brülhart & R Elliott & M Sensier, 2001. "A Tale of Two Cycles: Co-fluctuations Between UK Regions and the Euro Zone," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series, Economics, The University of Manchester 0101, Economics, The University of Manchester.
  6. Hess, Gregory D & Shin, Kwanho, 1997. "International and Intranational Business Cycles," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, Oxford University Press, vol. 13(3), pages 93-109, Autumn.
  7. Michael Artis, 2002. "Dating the Business Cycle in Britain," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 182(1), pages 90-95, October.
  8. Mario Forni & Lucrezia Reichlin, 1998. "Let's get real: a factor analytical approach to disaggregated business cycle dynamics," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10147, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  9. Bernard, A.B. & Durlauf, S.N., 1994. "Interpreting Tests of the Convergence Hypothesis," Working papers, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems 9401r, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  10. Harvey, A C & Jaeger, A, 1993. "Detrending, Stylized Facts and the Business Cycle," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(3), pages 231-47, July-Sept.
  11. Wynne, Mark A & Koo, Jahyeong, 2000. "Business Cycles under Monetary Union: A Comparison of the EU and US," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 67(267), pages 347-74, August.
  12. Robert J. Hodrick & Edward Prescott, 1981. "Post-War U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Discussion Papers, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science 451, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  13. Burnside, Craig, 1998. "Detrending and business cycle facts: A comment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 513-532, May.
  14. Pedroni, Peter & Yao, James Yudong, 2006. "Regional income divergence in China," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 294-315, April.
  15. M Artis, 2002. "Dating the Business Cycle in Britain," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester 17, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
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Cited by:
  1. Jan Fidrmuc & Jarko Fidrmuc & Shuo Huang, 2013. "Whither China? Reform and Economic Integration among Chinese Regions," CEDI Discussion Paper Series, Centre for Economic Development and Institutions(CEDI), Brunel University 13-01, Centre for Economic Development and Institutions(CEDI), Brunel University.
  2. Juergen Bierbaumer-Polly, 2012. "Regional and Sectoral Business Cycles - Key Features for the Austrian economy," EcoMod2012 4074, EcoMod.
  3. Jürgen Bierbaumer-Polly, 2012. "Regional Business Cycles in the Austrian Economy," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 85(11), pages 833-848, November.

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