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The UK Intranational Trade Cycle

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  • Michael Artis
  • Toshihiro Okubo

Abstract

The paper uses annual data on real GDP for the UK regions and 12 manufacturing sectors to derive regional and regional/sectoral business cycles using an H-P filter. The cohesion of the cycles is examined via cross-correlations and comparisons made with the regional cycles for Japan, the United States and the EuroArea. The UK emerges as especially cohesive and efforts to explain the overall cross-correlations of regional GDP not very successful owing to the low variance of the explicand; when attention is turned to the sectoral/regional cycles, with their greater variance it is possible to demonstrate that economic variables such as distance, dissimilarity in structure and level of output play a significant role in explaining the variance in the cross-correlations. A significant feature of the cross-correlations in relation to those of EU countries is that whilst they continue to provide support for the “UK idiosyncrasy” they no longer do so as strongly as they did in earlier data samples.

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File URL: http://www.socialsciences.manchester.ac.uk/medialibrary/cgbcr/discussionpapers/dpcgbcr111.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester in its series Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series with number 111.

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Length: 46 pages
Date of creation: 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:man:cgbcrp:111

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References

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  1. Robert J. Hodrick & Edward Prescott, 1981. "Post-War U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Discussion Papers 451, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  2. Harvey, A C & Jaeger, A, 1993. "Detrending, Stylized Facts and the Business Cycle," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(3), pages 231-47, July-Sept.
  3. Bernard, A.B. & Durlauf, S.N., 1994. "Interpreting Tests of the Convergence Hypothesis," Working papers 9401r, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  4. Uhlig, H.F.H.V.S. & Ravn, M., 1997. "On Adjusting the H-P Filter for the Frequency of Observations," Discussion Paper 1997-50, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  5. Peter Pedroni & James Yudong Yao, 2005. "Regional Income Divergence in China," Department of Economics Working Papers 2005-03, Department of Economics, Williams College.
  6. Hess, Gregory D. & Shin, Kwanho, 1998. "Intranational business cycles in the United States," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 289-313, April.
  7. Forni, Mario & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1998. "Let's Get Real: A Factor Analytical Approach to Disaggregated Business Cycle Dynamics," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(3), pages 453-73, July.
  8. M Artis, 2002. "Dating the Business Cycle in Britain," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 17, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
  9. Michael Artis & Toshihiro Okubo, 2008. "The Intranational Business Cycle: Evidence from Japan," Discussion Paper Series 221, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
  10. Michael Artis, 2002. "Dating the Business Cycle in Britain," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 182(1), pages 90-95, October.
  11. Wynne, Mark A & Koo, Jahyeong, 2000. "Business Cycles under Monetary Union: A Comparison of the EU and US," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 67(267), pages 347-74, August.
  12. Canova, Fabio, 1998. "Detrending and business cycle facts: A user's guide," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 533-540, May.
  13. Hess, Gregory D & Shin, Kwanho, 1997. "International and Intranational Business Cycles," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 13(3), pages 93-109, Autumn.
  14. Burnside, Craig, 1998. "Detrending and business cycle facts: A comment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 513-532, May.
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Cited by:
  1. Jan Fidrmuc & Jarko Fidrmuc & Shuo Huang, 2013. "Whither China? Reform and Economic Integration among Chinese Regions," CESifo Working Paper Series 4220, CESifo Group Munich.
  2. Michael Artis & Toshihiro Okubo, 2008. "Globalization and Business Cycle Transmission," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 110, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
  3. Jürgen Bierbaumer-Polly, 2012. "Regional Business Cycles in the Austrian Economy," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 85(11), pages 833-848, November.

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