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Output Movements in East Asia: Is There a Regional Factor?

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  • Maria Socorro Gochoco‐Bautista

Abstract

Using Lumsdaine and Prasad's (2003) methodology to construct a measure of the common component of industrial output fluctuations with time‐varying weights, this study finds that there is a significant regional factor that explains the movement in industrial production output across countries in East Asia (ASEAN 5 + 3). The cumulated common component for East Asia has very distinct peaks and troughs, with turning points occurring about every three years. Shocks in 2000–2001, coinciding with the bursting of the IT bubble, appear to be very important as there is a very large decline in the common component of industrial production output, larger than that experienced during the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis. Similar to McKinnon and Schnabl's (2003) findings, the Japanese economy is important for the region as its industrial production output cycle has the largest weight in the construction of the cumulated common component for the region and appears to be the most similar to it. Nevertheless, China's asymmetry with the cumulated component for the region appears to have been beneficial for the region, especially in the most recent period.

Suggested Citation

  • Maria Socorro Gochoco‐Bautista, 2008. "Output Movements in East Asia: Is There a Regional Factor?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(6), pages 738-762, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:31:y:2008:i:6:p:738-762
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9701.2007.01064.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jean IMBS, 1998. "Fluctuations, Bilateral Trade and the Exchange Rate Regime," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'économie 9906, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, Département d’économie, revised Nov 1998.
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    Cited by:

    1. Maria Socorro Gochoco‐Bautista & Dennis S. Mapa, 2010. "Linkages between Trade and Financial Integration and Output Growth in East Asia," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 24(1), pages 1-22, March.
    2. Dufrénot, Gilles & Keddad, Benjamin, 2014. "Business cycles synchronization in East Asia: A Markov-switching approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 186-197.
    3. Hwang, Seolwoong & Kim, Soyoung, 2022. "Real business cycles in emerging countries: Are Asian business cycles different from Latin American business cycles?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).

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