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Is There a Conflict Between EC Enlargement and European Monetary Unification?

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  • Bayoumi, Tamim
  • Eichengreen, Barry

Abstract

Recent proposals for enlarging the European Community to include the EFTA countries raise the question of whether the new members should participate in a European Monetary Union. In part, the issue hinges on the incidence of aggregate supply and demand disturbances. We use data on prices and output and a VAR decomposition to analyse this issue empirically, grouping economies according to the magnitude of the disturbances, their cross-country correlation, and speeds of response. We distinguish an EC `core' (Germany and its immediate neighbours) and an EC periphery (UK and the Southern European members of the Community). Austria, Sweden and Switzerland display more similarity to the EC core than do Finland, Iceland and Norway. This suggests that the case for EMU participation is stronger for Austria, Sweden and Switzerland than for the other EFTA countries.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 646.

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Date of creation: May 1992
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:646

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Keywords: EC Enlargement; EFTA; EMU;

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References

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  1. Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin, 1993. "The dynamic effects of aggregate demand and supply disturbances: comment," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10159, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  2. Morris Goldstein & Geoffrey Woglom, 1991. "Market-Based Fiscal Discipline in Monetary Unions: Evidence from the U.S. Municipal Bond Market," IMF Working Papers 91/89, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Barry Eichengreen., 1990. "Is Europe an Optimum Currency Area?," Economics Working Papers 90-151, University of California at Berkeley.
  4. Gylfason, Thorvaldur, 1991. "Iceland on the Outskirts of Europe: The Common Property Resource Problem," CEPR Discussion Papers 530, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Tamim Bayoumi & Barry Eichengreen, 1992. "Shocking Aspects of European Monetary Unification," NBER Working Papers 3949, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Bayoumi, Tamim & Eichengreen, Barry, 1992. "Macroeconomic Adjustment Under Bretton Woods and the Post-Bretton-Woods Float: An Impulse-Response Analysis," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt4gf4d2hc, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  2. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(449), pages 1009-25, July.
  3. Laurence Boone, 1997. "Symmetry and Asymmetry of Supply and Demand Shocks in the European Union," Working Papers 1997-03, CEPII research center.
  4. Stazka, Agnieszka, 2008. "International parity relations between Poland and Germany: a cointegrated VAR approach," MPRA Paper 24057, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Gerlach, Stefan, 1995. "Adjustable pegs vs. single currencies: How valuable is the option to realign?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 1155-1170, June.
  6. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Economic Structure and the Decision to Adopt a Common Currency," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series qt0bw0h379, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  7. Jean Pisani-Ferry, 1995. "L'Europe à géométrie variable, une analyse économique," Working Papers 1995-04, CEPII research center.
  8. Helene Schuberth & Gert Wehinger, 1998. "Costs of European Monetary Union: Evidence of monetary and fiscal policy effectiveness," ERSA conference papers ersa98p459, European Regional Science Association.
  9. Bordo, Michael D. & Jonung, Lars, 1994. "Monetary Regimes, Inflation and Monetary Reform: An Essay in Honor of Axel Leijonhufvud," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 16, Stockholm School of Economics.
  10. Weimann, Marco, 2002. "OCA theory and EMU eastern enlargement: An empirical application," Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics 07/02, Dresden University of Technology, Faculty of Business and Economics, Department of Economics.
  11. Schuberth, Helene, 1998. "Room for manoeuvre of economic policy in EU countries are there costs of joining EMU?," Working Papers 35, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  12. Boone, Laurence & Maurel, Mathilde, 1999. "An Optimal Currency Area Perspective of the EU Enlargement to the CEECs," CEPR Discussion Papers 2119, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  13. George Tavlas, 1994. "The theory of monetary integration," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 5(2), pages 211-230, March.
  14. Vassili Prokopenko & Etibar Jafarov & Anne Marie Gulde, 2004. "A Common Currency for Belarus and Russia?," IMF Working Papers 04/228, International Monetary Fund.

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