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Macroeconomic Adjustment Under Bretton Woods and the Post-Bretton Woods Float: An Impulse-Response Analysis

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Tamim Bayoumi
Barry Eichengreen

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Abstract

We use time-series methods to estimate a simple aggregate-supply aggregate-demand model in order to analyze the comparative performance of fixed- and flexible-exchange-rate systems and test competing hypotheses designed to explain shifts between exchange-rate regimes. The paper provides a coherent explanation of the causes and consequences of the shift from the Bretton Woods System of pegged exchange rates to the post-Bretton-Woods float. The shift from fixed to floating was associated with a modest increase in the cross-country dispersion of supply shocks but not with an increase in their average magnitude. In contrast, there was little change in either the cross-country dispersion or the average magnitude of demand shocks. More important in explaining the collapse of Bretton Woods were factors that heightened the impact of shocks on the external accounts, forcing governments to respond to supply shocks with changes in demand that stabilized prices and the exchange rate at the expense of increased output volatility.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 4169.

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Date of creation: Sep 1992
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:4169

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  1. Barry Eichengreen, 1992. "Three Perspectives on the Bretton Woods System," NBER Working Papers 4141, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Robert J. Barro & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1991. "Convergence across States and Regions," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(1991-1), pages 107-182. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Bayoumi, Tamim & Eichengreen, Barry, 1992. "Shocking Aspects of European Monetary Unification," CEPR Discussion Papers 643, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Baxter, M. & Stockman, A.C., 1988. "Business Cycles And The Exchange Rate System: Some International Evidence," RCER Working Papers 140, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
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  5. Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1993. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 644-52, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-73, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Hans Genberg & Alexander Swoboda, 1993. "The Provision of Liquidity in the Bretton Woods System," NBER Chapters, in: A Retrospective on the Bretton Woods System: Lessons for International Monetary Reform, pages 269-316 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  8. Tamim Bayoumi and Barry Eichengreen., 1992. "Is There a Conflict Between EC Enlargement and European Monetary Unification?," Economics Working Papers 92-188, University of California at Berkeley. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Michael D. Bordo, 1993. "The Bretton Woods International Monetary System: An Historical Overview," NBER Working Papers 4033, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Katie Farrant & Gert Peersman, . "Accounting for the source of exchange rate movements: new evidence," Bank of England working papers 269, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  2. Yin-wong Cheung & Kon S. Lai, 2007. "Nominal Exchange Rate Flexibility and Real Exchange Rate Adjustment: New Evidence from Dual Exchange Rates in Developing Countries," Working Papers 092007, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. John Keating, 2004. "Interpreting Permanent and Transitory Shocks to Output When Aggregate Demand May Not Be Neutral in the Long-run," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 608, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  4. Michael Bruno, 1993. "Inflation and Growth in an Integrated Approach," NBER Working Papers 4422, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Michael A. Kouparitsas, 1998. "Are international business cycles different under fixed and flexible exchange rate regimes?," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q I, pages 46-64. [Downloadable!]
  6. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali, 1994. "Sources of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations: How Important are Nominal Shocks?," NBER Working Papers 4658, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Christian Broda, 2002. "Uncertainty, exchange rate regimes, and national price levels," Staff Reports 151, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  8. K. Farrant & G. Peersman, 2005. "Is the exchange rate a shock absorber or a source of shocks? New empirical evidence," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/285, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration. [Downloadable!]
  9. Michael Kouparitsas, 2003. "International business cycles under fixed and flexible exchange rate regimes," Working Paper Series WP-03-28, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
  10. Eichengreen, Barry, 2001. "The EMS Crisis in Retrospect," CEPR Discussion Papers 2704, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  11. Christian Broda, 2002. "Terms of trade and exchange rate regimes in developing countries," Staff Reports 148, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  12. Mark Crosby, 2000. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Macroeconomic Performance in Hong Kong," Working Papers 032000, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Mark Crosby & Glenn Otto, 2001. "Persistence Of Output Fluctuations Under Alternative Exchange Rate Regimes," Working Papers 072001, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research. [Downloadable!]
  14. Steven Morling, 2002. "Output Adjustment in Developing Countries: a Structural Var Approach," Discussion Papers Series 307, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia. [Downloadable!]
  15. Jon Faust & Eric M. Leeper, 1994. "When do long-run identifying restrictions give reliable results?," International Finance Discussion Papers 462, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  16. Hans Groeneveld, 1995. "Monetary spill-over effects in the ERM: The case of Austria, a former shadow member," Working Papers 20, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank). [Downloadable!]
  17. Paul Hallwood & Ronald MacDonald, 2008. "International Money and Finance," Working papers 2008-02, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  18. Michael D. Bordo & Tamim Bayoumi, 1999. "Getting Pegged: Comparing the 1879 and 1925 Gold Resumptions," NBER Working Papers 5497, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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