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Is There a Conflict Between EC Enlargement and European Monetary Unification?

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  • Tamim Bayoumi
  • Barry Eichengreen

Abstract

Recent proposals for enlarging the European Community to include the EFTA countries raise the question of whether the new members should participate in a European Monetary Union. In part, the issue hinges on the incidence of aggregate supply and demand disturbances. We use data on prices and output and a VAR decomposition to analyze this issue empirically, grouping economies according to the magnitude of the disturbances, their cross-country correlation, and speeds of response. This leads us to distinguish an EC "core" (made up of Germany and its immediate neighbors) and an EC periphery (made up of the UK and the Southern European members of the Community). Austria, Sweden and Switzerland behave more similarly to the EC core than do Norway, Finland and Iceland. This suggests that the case for EMU participation is stronger for Austria, Sweden and Switzerland than for the other EFTA countries.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 3950.

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Date of creation: Jan 1992
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3950

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  1. Eichengreen, Barry, 1990. "Is Europe an Optimum Currency Area?," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt40m5g6pp, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  2. Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1993. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 644-52, June.
  3. Tamim Bayoumi and Barry Eichengreen., 1992. "Shocking Aspects of European Monetary Unification," Economics Working Papers 92-187, University of California at Berkeley.
  4. Morris Goldstein & Geoffrey Woglom, 1991. "Market-Based Fiscal Discipline in Monetary Unions: Evidence from the U.S. Municipal Bond Market," IMF Working Papers 91/89, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Gylfason, Thorvaldur, 1991. "Iceland on the Outskirts of Europe: The Common Property Resource Problem," CEPR Discussion Papers 530, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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Cited by:
  1. Bayoumi, Tamim & Eichengreen, Barry, 1992. "Macroeconomic Adjustment Under Bretton Woods and the Post-Bretton-Woods Float: An Impulse-Response Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 729, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Schuberth, Helene, 1998. "Room for manoeuvre of economic policy in EU countries are there costs of joining EMU?," Working Papers 35, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  3. Vassili Prokopenko & Etibar Jafarov & Anne Marie Gulde, 2004. "A Common Currency for Belarus and Russia?," IMF Working Papers 04/228, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Helene Schuberth & Gert Wehinger, 1998. "Costs of European Monetary Union: Evidence of monetary and fiscal policy effectiveness," ERSA conference papers ersa98p459, European Regional Science Association.
  5. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1996. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," CEPR Discussion Papers 1473, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Bordo, Michael D. & Jonung, Lars, 1994. "Monetary Regimes, Inflation and Monetary Reform: An Essay in Honor of Axel Leijonhufvud," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 16, Stockholm School of Economics.
  7. Stazka, Agnieszka, 2008. "International parity relations between Poland and Germany: a cointegrated VAR approach," MPRA Paper 24057, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Economic Structure and the Decision to Adopt a Common Currency," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series qt0bw0h379, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  9. George Tavlas, 1994. "The theory of monetary integration," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 5(2), pages 211-230, March.
  10. Laurence Boone, 1997. "Symmetry and Asymmetry of Supply and Demand Shocks in the European Union," Working Papers 1997-03, CEPII research center.
  11. Gerlach, Stefan, 1995. "Adjustable pegs vs. single currencies: How valuable is the option to realign?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 1155-1170, June.
  12. Weimann, Marco, 2002. "OCA theory and EMU eastern enlargement: An empirical application," Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics 07/02, Dresden University of Technology, Faculty of Business and Economics, Department of Economics.
  13. Jean Pisani-Ferry, 1995. "L'Europe à géométrie variable, une analyse économique," Working Papers 1995-04, CEPII research center.
  14. Boone, Laurence & Maurel, Mathilde, 1999. "An Optimal Currency Area Perspective of the EU Enlargement to the CEECs," CEPR Discussion Papers 2119, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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