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Economic Structure and the Decision to Adopt a Common Currency

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Author Info
Frankel, Jeffrey A. (Economics Department, University of California)
Rose, Andrew K. () (Economics Department, University of California)

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Abstract

Everyone studying EMU cites the theory of Optimum Currency Areas: whether a country like Sweden should join the currency union depends on such parameters as the extent of Swedish trade with other EU members and the correlation of Sweden’s income with that of other members. Few economists have focused on what we consider one of the most interesting aspects of this issue. Trade patterns and income correlations are endogenous. Sweden could fail the OCA criterion for membership today, and yet, if it goes ahead and joins anyway, could, as the result of joining, pass the Optimum Currency Area (OCA) criterion in the future. (Further, even if Sweden does not enter EMU quickly, it will be more likely to satisfy the OCA criteria in the future as a result of its recent accession to the EU.)

The few economists who have identified the importance of the endogeneity of trade patterns and income correlation are divided on the nature of the relationship between the two. This is an important empirical question, which may hold the key to the answer regarding whether it is in Sweden’s interest to join EMU.

We review the OCA theory, highlighting the role of trade links and income links. Then we discuss and analyze the endogeneity of these parameters. We present econometric evidence suggesting strongly that if trade links between Sweden and the rest of Europe strengthen in the future, then Sweden’s income will become more highly correlated with European income in the future (not less correlated, as some have claimed). This has important implications for the OCA criterion. It means that a naïve examination of historical data gives a biased picture of the effects of EMU entry on Sweden. It also means that EMU membership is more likely to make sense for Sweden in the future than it does today.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies in its series Seminar Papers with number 611.

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Length: 53 pages
Date of creation: 05 Nov 1997
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Handle: RePEc:hhs:iiessp:0611

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Postal: Institute for International Economic Studies, Stockholm University, S-106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
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Related research
Keywords: EMU; Optimum Currency Area; trade patterns; income correlations;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

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  7. Tamim Bayoumi and Barry Eichengreen., 1993. "One Money or Many? On Analyzing the Prospects for Monetary Unification in Various Parts of the World," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C93-030, University of California at Berkeley.
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  9. McCallum, John, 1995. "National Borders Matter: Canada-U.S. Regional Trade Patterns," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(3), pages 615-23, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Jeffrey A. Frankel and Shang-Jin Wei., 1993. "Emerging Currency Blocs," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C93-026, University of California at Berkeley.
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  11. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Lawrence F. Katz, 1992. "Regional Evolutions," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 23(1992-1), pages 1-76. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Jeffrey A. Frankel and Shang-Jin Wei., 1995. "European Integration and the Regionalization of World Trade and Currencies: The Economics and the Politics," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C95-053, University of California at Berkeley.
  15. Artis, Michael J & Zhang, Wenda, 1995. "International Business Cycles and the ERM: Is there a European Business Cycle?," CEPR Discussion Papers 1191, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Persson, Torsten & Svensson, Lars E. O., 1989. "Exchange rate variability and asset trade," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 485-509, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Tamim Bayoumi and Barry Eichengreen., 1992. "Shocking Aspects of European Monetary Unification," Economics Working Papers 92-187, University of California at Berkeley. [Downloadable!]
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  18. Honkapohja, Seppo & Pikkarainen, Pentti, 1992. "Country Characteristics and the Choice of the Exchange Rate Regime: Are Mini-skirts Followed by Maxis?," CEPR Discussion Papers 744, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Tamim Bayoumi & Barry J. Eichengreen, 1993. "Monetary and Exchange Rate Arrangements for NAFTA," IMF Working Papers 93/20, International Monetary Fund.
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  21. Jeffrey A. Frankel., 1996. "Recent Exchange Rate Experience and Proposals for Reform," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C96-060, University of California at Berkeley.
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  22. Heller, H Robert, 1978. "Determinants of Exchange Rate Practices," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 10(3), pages 308-21, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Fidrmuc, J. & Horvath, J., 1998. "Stability of monetary unions : lessons from the break-up of Czechoslovakia," Discussion Paper 74, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Ansgar Belke & Daniel Gros, 1999. "Estimating the costs and benefits of EMU: The impact of external shocks on labour markets," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 135(1), pages 1-47, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Ignazio Angeloni & Luca Dedola, 1999. "From the ERM to the euro: new evidence on economic and policy convergence among EU countries," Working Paper Series 4, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Ansgar Belke & Daniel Gros, 2001. "Real Impacts of Intra-European Exchange Rate Variability: A Case for EMU?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 12(3), pages 231-264, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Lindbeck, Assar, 1998. "Swedish Lessons for Post-Socialist Countries," Seminar Papers 645, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. FELIPE LARRAÍN B. & JOSÉ TAVARES, 2003. "Regional Currencies Versus Dollarization: Options for Asia and the Americas," Journal of Policy Reform, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 35-49, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Fidrmuc, Jan, 1999. "Stochastic Shocks and Incentives for (Dis)Integration," CEPR Discussion Papers 2104, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Mishkin, Frederic S., 1998. "International Experiences With Different Monetary Policy Regimes," Seminar Papers 648, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Lane, P, 1999. "Asymmetric Shocks and Monetary Policy in a Currency Union," Trinity Economics Papers 994, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Taylor, John B., 1998. "The Robustness and Efficiency of Monetary Policy Rules as Guidelines for Interest Rate Setting by the European Central Bank," Seminar Papers 649, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Mkenda, Beatrice Kalinda, 2001. "Is East Africa an Optimum Currency Area?," Working Papers in Economics 41, Göteborg University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  12. Westlund, Hans & Johansson, Magnus & Molinder, Jonas, 2000. "Exchange Rate Sensitivity Of Swedish Regions," ERSA conference papers ersa00p140, European Regional Science Association. [Downloadable!]
  13. George Demopoulos & Nicholas Yannacopoulos, 1999. "Conditions for Optimality of a Currency Area," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 10(3), pages 289-303, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Yu-Feng Lee, 2007. "Bilateral Trade and Intra-Regional Business Cycles: Is East Asia Feasible for a Currency Area?," Global Economy Journal, International Trade and Finance Association, vol. 7(3), pages 6. [Downloadable!]
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