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Exchange Rate Volatility, Monetary Policy, and Capital Mobility: Empirical Evidence on the Holy Trinity

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  • Andrew K. Rose

Abstract

This paper uses a panel of data from twenty-two countries between 1967 and 1992 to explore the tradeoff between the 'Holy Trinity' of fixed exchange rates, independent monetary policy, and capital mobility. I use: flexible- and sticky-price monetary exchange rate models to parameterize monetary divergence; factor analysis to extract measures of capital mobility from a variety of different indicators; and conditional exchange rate volatility to measure the degree to which the exchange rate is fixed. Exchange rate volatility is loosely linked to both monetary divergence and the degree of capital mobility. Interestingly, exchange rate volatility is significantly correlated with the width of the explicitly declared exchange rate band, even after taking monetary divergence and capital mobility into account.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 4630.

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Date of creation: Jan 1994
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Publication status: published as JIMF, 1996
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:4630

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  1. repec:fth:calaec:16-92 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. Alberto Alesina & Vittorio Grilli & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferrett, 1993. "The Political Economy of Capital Controls," NBER Working Papers 4353, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1993. "On Exchange Rates," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262061546, December.
  4. Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1979. "On the Mark: A Theory of Floating Exchange Rates Based on Real Interest Differentials," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(4), pages 610-22, September.
  5. Alan C. Stockman, 1992. "International Transmission Under Bretton Woods," NBER Working Papers 4127, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December.
  7. A Alesina & V Grilli & G Milesi-Feretti, 1993. "The Political Economy of Capital Controls," CEP Discussion Papers dp0169, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
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Cited by:
  1. Frankel, J-A & Rose, A-K, 1996. "Economic Structure and the Decision to Adopt a Common Currency," Papers 611, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  2. Eduardo Levy-Yeyati & Federico Sturzenegger & Iliana Reggio, 2009. "On the endogeneity of exchange rate regimes," Economics Working Papers we098374, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía.
  3. Ansgar Belke & Leo Kaas, 2004. "Exchange Rate Movements and Employment Growth: An OCA Assessment of the CEE Economies," Empirica, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 247-280, June.
  4. Hjalmar Böhm & Michael Funke, 2001. "Does the Nominal Exchange Rate Regime Matter for Investment?," CESifo Working Paper Series 578, CESifo Group Munich.
  5. Olivier Jeanne & Andrew K. Rose, 1999. "Noise Trading and Exchange Rate Regimes," NBER Working Papers 7104, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Ansgar Belke & Ralph Setzer, 2003. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Employment Growth: Empirical Evidence from the CEE Economies," CESifo Working Paper Series 1056, CESifo Group Munich.
  7. Ansgar Belke & Daniel Gros, 2001. "Real Impacts of Intra-European Exchange Rate Variability: A Case for EMU?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 12(3), pages 231-264, July.
  8. Daniel Gros, 1996. "Germany’s stake in exchange rate stability," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 31(5), pages 236-240, September.

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