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Exchange Rate Volatility, Monetary Policy, and Capital Mobility: Empirical Evidence on the Holy Trinity

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  • Andrew K. Rose

Abstract

This paper uses a panel of data from twenty-two countries between 1967 and 1992 to explore the tradeoff between the 'Holy Trinity' of fixed exchange rates, independent monetary policy, and capital mobility. I use: flexible- and sticky-price monetary exchange rate models to parameterize monetary divergence; factor analysis to extract measures of capital mobility from a variety of different indicators; and conditional exchange rate volatility to measure the degree to which the exchange rate is fixed. Exchange rate volatility is loosely linked to both monetary divergence and the degree of capital mobility. Interestingly, exchange rate volatility is significantly correlated with the width of the explicitly declared exchange rate band, even after taking monetary divergence and capital mobility into account.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 4630.

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Date of creation: Jan 1994
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Publication status: published as JIMF, 1996
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:4630

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  1. Alan C. Stockman, 1993. "International Transmission under Bretton Woods," NBER Chapters, in: A Retrospective on the Bretton Woods System: Lessons for International Monetary Reform, pages 317-356 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. A Alesina & V Grilli & G Milesi-Feretti, 1993. "The Political Economy of Capital Controls," CEP Discussion Papers dp0169, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  3. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1993. "On Exchange Rates," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262061546, December.
  4. Alesina, Alberto F & Grilli, Vittorio & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 1993. "The Political Economy of Capital Controls," CEPR Discussion Papers 793, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December.
  6. repec:fth:calaec:16-92 is not listed on IDEAS
  7. Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1979. "On the Mark: A Theory of Floating Exchange Rates Based on Real Interest Differentials," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(4), pages 610-22, September.
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Cited by:
  1. Levy-Yeyati, Eduardo & Sturzenegger, Federico & Reggio, Iliana, 2006. "On the Endogeneity of Exchange Rate Regimes," Working Paper Series rwp06-047, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
  2. Jeffrey A. Frankel and Andrew K. Rose., 1996. "Economic Structure and the Decision to Adopt a Common Currency," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C96-073, University of California at Berkeley.
  3. Ansgar Belke & Daniel Gros, 2001. "Real Impacts of Intra-European Exchange Rate Variability: A Case for EMU?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 12(3), pages 231-264, July.
  4. Hjalmar Böhm & Michael Funke, 2001. "Does the Nominal Exchange Rate Regime Matter for Investment?," CESifo Working Paper Series 578, CESifo Group Munich.
  5. Olivier Jeanne & Andrew K. Rose, 2002. "Noise Trading And Exchange Rate Regimes," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(2), pages 537-569, May.
  6. Ansgar Belke & Leo Kaas, 2004. "Exchange Rate Movements and Employment Growth: An OCA Assessment of the CEE Economies," Empirica, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 247-280, June.
  7. Belke, Ansgar & Setzer, Ralph, 2004. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Employment Growth: Empirical Evidence from the CEE Economies," IZA Discussion Papers 1038, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  8. Daniel Gros, 1996. "Germany’s stake in exchange rate stability," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 31(5), pages 236-240, September.

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