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Exchange Rate Volatility, Monetary Policy, and Capital Mobility: Empirical Evidence on the Holy Trinity

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Andrew K. Rose

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Abstract

This paper uses a panel of data from twenty-two countries between 1967 and 1992 to explore the tradeoff between the 'Holy Trinity' of fixed exchange rates, independent monetary policy, and capital mobility. I use: flexible- and sticky-price monetary exchange rate models to parameterize monetary divergence; factor analysis to extract measures of capital mobility from a variety of different indicators; and conditional exchange rate volatility to measure the degree to which the exchange rate is fixed. Exchange rate volatility is loosely linked to both monetary divergence and the degree of capital mobility. Interestingly, exchange rate volatility is significantly correlated with the width of the explicitly declared exchange rate band, even after taking monetary divergence and capital mobility into account.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 4630.

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Date of creation: Jan 1994
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:4630

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F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

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  1. Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1979. "On the Mark: A Theory of Floating Exchange Rates Based on Real Interest Differentials," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(4), pages 610-22, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Alesina, Alberto F & Grilli, Vittorio & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 1993. "The Political Economy of Capital Controls," CEPR Discussion Papers 793, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. A Alesina & V Grilli & G Milesi-Feretti, 1993. "The Political Economy of Capital Controls," CEP Discussion Papers dp0169, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  4. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Tesar, L.L. & Werner, I.M., 1992. "Home Bias and the Globalization of Securities Markets," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series 16-92, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
  6. Alan C. Stockman, 1992. "International Transmission Under Bretton Woods," NBER Working Papers 4127, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Christer Ljungwall & Steven Wang, 2004. "Why is capital flowing out of China?," Trade Working Papers 606, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  2. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1997. "Economic Structure and the Decision to Adopt a Common Currency," Seminar Papers 611, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Ansgar Belke & Ralph Setzer, 2003. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Employment Growth: Empirical Evidence from the CEE Economies," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Hjalmar Boehm & Michael Funke, 2001. "Does the Nominal Exchange Rate Regime Matter for Investment?," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Olivier Jeanne & Andrew K Rose, 1999. "Noise trading and exchange rate regimes," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G99/2, Reserve Bank of New Zealand. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Levy-Yeyati, Eduardo & Sturzenegger, Federico & Reggio, Iliana, 2006. "On the Endogeneity of Exchange Rate Regimes," Working Paper Series rwp06-047, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Ansgar Belke & Daniel Gros, 2001. "Real Impacts of Intra-European Exchange Rate Variability: A Case for EMU?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 12(3), pages 231-264, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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