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THE ENDOGENEITY OF THE OPTIMUM CURRENCY AREA CRITERIA IN EAST ASIa

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  • Grace H.Y. Lee
  • M. Azali

Abstract

The Asian financial crisis in mid-1997 has increased interest in policies to achieve greater regional exchange rate stability in East Asia. It has renewed calls for greater monetary and exchange rate cooperation. A country’s suitability to join a monetary union depends, inter alia, on the trade intensity and the business cycle synchronization with other potential members of the monetary union. However, these two Optimum Currency Area criteria are endogenous. Theoretically, the effect of increased trade integration (after the elimination of exchange fluctuations among the countries in the region) on the business cycle synchronization is ambiguous. Reduction in trade barriers can potentially increase industrial specialization by country and therefore resulting in more asymmetry business cycles from industry-specific shocks. On the other hand, increased trade integration may result in more highly correlated business cycles due to common demand shocks or intra-industry trade. If the second hypothesis is empirically verified, policy makers have little to worry about the region being unsynchronized in their business cycles as the business cycles will become more synchronized after the monetary union is formed. This paper assesses the dynamic relationships between trade, finance, specialization and business cycle synchronization for East Asian economies using a Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) approach. The dynamic panel approach improves on previous efforts to examine the business cycle correlation –trade link using panel procedures, which control for the potential endogeneity of all explanatory variables. Based on the findings on how trade, finance and sectoral specialization have effects on the size of common shocks among countries, potential policies that can help East Asian countries move close toward a regional currency arrangement can be suggested. The empirical results of this study suggest that there exists scope for East Asia to form a monetary union.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Monash University, Department of Economics in its series Monash Economics Working Papers with number 15-09.

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Length: 37 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mos:moswps:2009-15

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Keywords: Optimum Currency Area; Monetary Union; Trade Integration; Business Cycle Synchronisation;

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References

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Cited by:
  1. Liyanage Devangi H. Perera & Grace H.Y. Lee, 2013. "Have Economic Growth And Institutional Quality Contributed To Poverty And Inequality Reduction In Asia?," Development Research Unit Working Paper Series 37-13, Monash University, Department of Economics.
  2. Gilles Dufrénot & Benjamin Keddad, 2013. "Business Cycles Synchronization in East Asia: A Markov-Switching Approach," AMSE Working Papers 1344, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, Marseille, France, revised Sep 2013.
  3. Lee, Grace HY & M, Azali, 2010. "Is East Asia an optimum currency area?," MPRA Paper 52556, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Hideaki Hirata & M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok, 2013. "Regionalization vs. Globalization," CAMA Working Papers 2013-09, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  5. Krzysztof Beck, 2013. "Determinants of Business Cycles Synchronization in the European Union and the Euro Area," Equilibrium, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 8, pages 25-48.
  6. Allegret, Jean-Pierre & Essaadi, Essahbi, 2011. "Business cycles synchronization in East Asian economy: Evidences from time-varying coherence study," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 351-365.
  7. Gilles de Truchis & Benjamin Keddad, 2012. "South East Asian Monetary Integration: New Evidences from Fractional Cointegration of Real Exchange Rates," AMSE Working Papers 1229, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, Marseille, France, revised 05 Nov 2012.
  8. Emilio Espino & Julian Kozlowski & Juan M. Sánchez, 2013. "Regionalization vs. globalization," Working Papers 2013-002, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  9. Lee, Grace H.Y. & Koh, Sharon G.M., 2012. "The prospects of a monetary union in East Asia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 96-102.

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