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Cross-country causes and consequences of the crisis: an update

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  • Andrew K. Rose
  • Mark M. Spiegel

Abstract

We update Rose and Spiegel (2010a, b) and search for simple quantitative models of macroeconomic and financial indicators of the "Great Recession" of 2008-09. We use a cross-country approach and examine a number of potential causes that have been found to be successful indicators of crisis intensity by other scholars. We check a number of different indicators of crisis intensity, and a variety of different country samples. While countries with higher income and looser credit market regulation seemed to suffer worse crises, we find few clear reliable indicators in the pre-crisis data of the incidence of the Great Recession. Countries with current account surpluses seemed better insulated from slowdowns.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in its series Working Paper Series with number 2011-02.

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Date of creation: 2011
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfwp:2011-02

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Keywords: Global financial crisis ; Econometric models;

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  1. Philip R Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2011. "The Cross-Country Incidence of the Global Crisis," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 59(1), pages 77-110, April.
  2. Steven B. Kamin & Laurie Pounder DeMarco, 2010. "How did a domestic housing slump turn into a global financial crisis?," International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) 994, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  3. Rose, Andrew K & Spiegel, Mark, 2009. "Cross-Country Causes and Consequences of the 2008 Crisis: International Linkages and American Exposure," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 7466, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2010. "Market freedom and the global recession," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 7884, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Jeffrey A. Frankel & George Saravelos, 2010. "Are Leading Indicators of Financial Crises Useful for Assessing Country Vulnerability? Evidence from the 2008-09 Global Crisis," NBER Working Papers 16047, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Olivier J. Blanchard & Mitali Das & Hamid Faruqee, 2010. "The Initial Impact of the Crisis on Emerging Market Countries," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 41(1 (Spring), pages 263-323.
  7. Goldberger, Arthur S, 1972. "Structural Equation Methods in the Social Sciences," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 40(6), pages 979-1001, November.
  8. Gaston Gelos & Robert Rennhack & James P Walsh & Pelin Berkmen, 2009. "The Global Financial Crisis," IMF Working Papers 09/280, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Tobias Adrian & Hyun Song Shin, 2008. "Financial intermediaries, financial stability, and monetary policy," Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York 346, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  10. Stijn Claessens & Luc Laeven & Deniz Igan & Giovanni Dell'Ariccia, 2010. "Lessons and Policy Implications From the Global Financial Crisis," IMF Working Papers 10/44, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Stijn Claessens & Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Deniz Igan & Luc Laeven, 2010. "Cross-country experiences and policy implications from the global financial crisis," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 25, pages 267-293, 04.
  12. Sophia Rabe-Hesketh & Anders Skrondal & Andrew Pickles, 2004. "GLLAMM Manual," U.C. Berkeley Division of Biostatistics Working Paper Series, Berkeley Electronic Press 1160, Berkeley Electronic Press.
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