Drivers of Output Loss during the 2008–09 Crisis: A Focus on Emerging Europe
AbstractWe study empirically the role that initial conditions played in the emergence of cross-country heterogeneity in real output loss during the recent global financial crisis. We use a global sample covering over 150 countries and focus on the differences in the determinants of the crisis in emerging Europe compared to those in the rest of the world. We find that the differences in crisis severity in emerging Europe can only partly be explained by the factors that appear to be important for the global sample. Our results indicate that for the European emerging economies, growth above potential before the crisis coupled with external disequilibria as well as financial openness were particularly important mechanisms that increased the severity of the crisis in terms of output loss. We also find some evidence that pre-crisis FDI inflows softened the negative real output effects of the crisis in the region. JEL classification: C11, C15, E01, O47
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank) in its journal Focus on European Economic Integration.
Volume (Year): (2012)
Issue (Month): 2 (May)
Postal: Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Documentation Management and Communications Services, Otto-Wagner Platz 3, A-1090 Vienna, Austria
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
- C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
- E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
- O47 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Measurement of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Peter Backé & Martin Feldkircher & Ernest Gnan & Mathias Lahnsteiner & Ewald Nowotny & Jürgen Kröger & Stefan Kuhnert & Mary McCarthy & Sebastián Nieto-Parra & Javier Santiso & Stéphane Dees & Fi, 2010. "Contagion and Spillovers: New Insights from the Crisis," SUERF Studies, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum, number 2010/5 edited by Peter Backé, Ernest Gnan and Philipp Hartmann, March.
- Eduardo Levy-Yeyati & Tomas Williams, 2011.
"Financial globalization in emerging economies:Much ado about nothing?,"
Business School Working Papers
2011-01, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
- Yeyati, Eduardo Levy & Williams, Tomas, 2011. "Financial globalization in emerging economies : much ado about nothing ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5624, The World Bank.
- Michel Beine & Elisabetta Lodigiani & Robert Vermeulen, 2009.
"Remittances and Financial Openness,"
CREA Discussion Paper Series
09-09, Center for Research in Economic Analysis, University of Luxembourg.
- Michel Beine & Elisabetta Lodigiani & Robert Vermuelen, 2010. "Remittances and Financial Openness," Development Working Papers 299, Centro Studi Luca d\'Agliano, University of Milano.
- Michel Beine & Elisabetta Lodigiani & Robert Vermeulen, 2010. "Remittances and Financial Openness," CESifo Working Paper Series 3090, CESifo Group Munich.
- Michel Beine & Elisabetta Lodigiani & Robert Vermeulen, 2011. "Remittances and Financial Openness," DNB Working Papers 317, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
- Jean Imbs, 2010.
"The First Global Recession in Decades,"
IMF Economic Review,
Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 58(2), pages 327-354, December.
- Erik Berglof & Yevgeniya Korniyenko & Alexander Plekhanov & Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2010. "Understanding the Crisis in Emerging Europe," Public Policy Review, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan, vol. 6(6), pages 985-1008, September.
- Domenico Giannone & Michèle Lenza & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2010.
"Market Freedom and the Global Recession,"
Working Papers ECARES
ECARES 2010-020, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Andrew K. Rose & Mark M. Spiegel, 2009.
"Cross-country causes and consequences of the 2008 crisis: international linkages and American exposure,"
Working Paper Series
2009-18, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- AndrewK. Rose & MarkM. Spiegel, 2010. "Cross-Country Causes And Consequences Of The 2008 Crisis: International Linkages And American Exposure," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(3), pages 340-363, 08.
- Rose, Andrew K & Spiegel, Mark, 2009. "Cross-Country Causes and Consequences of the 2008 Crisis: International Linkages and American Exposure," CEPR Discussion Papers 7466, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Andrew K. Rose & Mark M. Spiegel, 2009. "Cross-Country Causes and Consequences of the 2008 Crisis: International Linkages and American Exposure," NBER Working Papers 15358, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Rose, Andrew K & Spiegel, Mark, 2010.
"Cross-Country Causes and Consequences of the Crisis: An Update,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
7901, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Rose, Andrew K. & Spiegel, Mark M., 2011. "Cross-country causes and consequences of the crisis: An update," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 309-324, April.
- Andrew K. Rose & Mark M. Spiegel, 2011. "Cross-country causes and consequences of the crisis: an update," Working Paper Series 2011-02, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Andrew K. Rose & Mark M. Spiegel, 2010. "Cross-Country Causes and Consequences of the Crisis: An Update," NBER Working Papers 16243, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Feldkircher, Martin & Zeugner, Stefan, 2010. "The Impact of Data Revisions on the Robustness of Growth Determinants - A Note on 'Determinants of Economic Growth. Will Data Tell?'," Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2010-12, University of Salzburg.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel & George Saravelos, 2010. "Are Leading Indicators of Financial Crises Useful for Assessing Country Vulnerability? Evidence from the 2008-09 Global Crisis," NBER Working Papers 16047, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Carmen Fernandez & E Ley & Mark F J Steel, 2004.
"Benchmark priors for Bayesian models averaging,"
ESE Discussion Papers
66, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
- Chudik, Alexander & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2011. "Identifying the global transmission of the 2007-2009 financial crisis in a GVAR model," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 325-339, April.
- Caprio, Gerard Jr. & D'Apice, Vincenzo & Ferri, Giovanni & Puopolo, Giovanni Walter, 2010. "Macro Financial Determinants of the Great Financial Crisis: Implications for Financial Regulation," MPRA Paper 26088, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Joshua Aizenman & Jaewoo Lee & Vladyslav Sushko, 2012.
"From the Great Moderation to the Global Crisis: Exchange Market Pressure in the 2000s,"
Open Economies Review,
Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 597-621, September.
- Joshua Aizenman & Jaewoo Lee & Vladyslav Sushko, 2010. "From the Great Moderation to the global crisis: Exchange market pressure in the 2000s," NBER Working Papers 16447, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Aizenman, Joshua & Lee, Jaewoo & Sushko, Vladyslav, 2010. "From the Great Moderation to the global crisis: Exchange market pressure in the 2000s," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt8c75z2pt, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
- Davide Furceri & Aleksandra Zdzienicka, 2009.
"The Real Effect of Financial Crises in the European Transition Economies,"
0920, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique (GATE), Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS), Université Lyon 2, Ecole Normale Supérieure.
- Davide Furceri & Aleksandra Zdzienicka, 2011. "The real effect of financial crises in the European transition economies," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 19(1), pages 1-25, 01.
- Davide Furceri & Aleksandra Zdzienicka-Durand, 2011. "The Real Effect of Financial Crises in the European Transition Economies," Post-Print halshs-00431044, HAL.
- Martin Schindler, 2009. "Measuring Financial Integration: A New Data Set," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 56(1), pages 222-238, April.
- Gaston Gelos & Robert Rennhack & James P Walsh & Pelin Berkmen, 2009.
"The Global Financial Crisis: Explaining Cross-Country Differences in the Output Impact,"
IMF Working Papers
09/280, International Monetary Fund.
- Berkmen, S. Pelin & Gelos, Gaston & Rennhack, Robert & Walsh, James P., 2012. "The global financial crisis: Explaining cross-country differences in the output impact," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 42-59.
- Martin Feldkircher & Stefan Zeugner, 2009. "Benchmark Priors Revisited: On Adaptive Shrinkage and the Supermodel Effect in Bayesian Model Averaging," IMF Working Papers 09/202, International Monetary Fund.
- Winford H. Masanjala & Chris Papageorgiou, 2008. "Rough and lonely road to prosperity: a reexamination of the sources of growth in Africa using Bayesian model averaging," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(5), pages 671-682.
- Olivier J. Blanchard & Mitali Das & Hamid Faruqee, 2010. "The Initial Impact of the Crisis on Emerging Market Countries," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 41(1 (Spring), pages 263-323.
- Jan Babecky & Tomas Havranek & Jakub Mateju & Marek Rusnak & Katerina Smidkova & Borek Vasicek, 2011. "Early Warning Indicators of Economic Crises: Evidence from a Panel of 40 Developed Countries," Working Papers 2011/08, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
- Stephen Cecchetti & Michael R King & James Yetman, 2011. "Weathering the financial crisis: good policy or good luck?," BIS Working Papers 351, Bank for International Settlements.
- Branimir Jovanovic, 2012. "How Policy Actions Affect Short-term Post-crisis Recovery?," CEIS Research Paper 253, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 05 Oct 2012.
- Feldkircher, Martin, 2012. "The Determinants of Vulnerability to the Global Financial Crisis 2008 to 2009: Credit Growth and Other Sources of Risk," BOFIT Discussion Papers 26/2012, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Birgit Riedler).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.