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Weathering the financial crisis: good policy or good luck?

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  • Stephen Cecchetti
  • Michael R King
  • James Yetman

Abstract

The macroeconomic performance of individual countries varied markedly during the 2007-09 global financial crisis. While China's growth never dipped below 6% and Australia's worst quarter was no growth, the economies of Japan, Mexico and the United Kingdom suffered annualised GDP contractions of 5-10% per quarter for five to seven quarters in a row. We exploit this cross-country variation to examine whether a country's macroeconomic performance over this period was the result of pre-crisis policy decisions or just good luck. The answer is a bit of both. Better-performing economies featured a better-capitalised banking sector, lower loan-to-deposit ratios, a current account surplus, high foreign exchange reserves and low levels and growth rates of private sector credit-to-GDP. In other words, sound policy decisions and institutions reduced their vulnerability to the financial crisis. But these economies also featured a low level of financial openness and less exposure to US creditors, suggesting that good luck played a part.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bank for International Settlements in its series BIS Working Papers with number 351.

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Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:351

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Keywords: financial crisis; principal components;

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References

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  1. Olivier J. Blanchard & Mitali Das & Hamid Faruqee, 2010. "The Initial Impact of the Crisis on Emerging Market Countries," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 41(1 (Spring), pages 263-323.
  2. Andrew K. Rose & Mark M. Spiegel, 2011. "Cross-country causes and consequences of the crisis: an update," Working Paper Series 2011-02, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  3. Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2010. "Market freedom and the global recession," CEPR Discussion Papers 7884, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. James Yetman & Michael B. Devereux, 2010. "leverage constraints and the international transmission of shocks," 2010 Meeting Papers 1341, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  5. Matteo Ciccarelli & Benoît Mojon, 2008. "Global inflation," Working Paper Series WP-08-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  6. Andrew Filardo & Jason George & Mico Loretan & Guonan Ma & Anella Munro & Ilhyock Shim & Philip Wooldridge & James Yetman & Haibin Zhu, 2010. "The international financial crisis: timeline, impact and policy responses in Asia and the Pacific," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The international financial crisis and policy challenges in Asia and the Pacific, volume 52, pages 21-82 Bank for International Settlements.
  7. Andrew K. Rose & Mark M. Spiegel, . "Cross-Country Causes and Consequences of the 2008 Crisis: Early Warning," Working Papers 6, Department of the Treasury, Ministry of the Economy and of Finance.
  8. Fabian Valencia & Luc Laeven, 2008. "Systemic Banking Crises: A New Database," IMF Working Papers 08/224, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Jean Imbs, 2010. "The First Global Recession in Decades," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 58(2), pages 327-354, December.
  10. Gaston Gelos & Robert Rennhack & James P Walsh & Pelin Berkmen, 2009. "The Global Financial Crisis: Explaining Cross-Country Differences in the Output Impact," IMF Working Papers 09/280, International Monetary Fund.
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Cited by:
  1. Liliana Rojas-Suarez and Carlos Montoro, 2012. "Credit at Times of Stress: Latin American Lessons from the Global Financial Crisis - Working Paper 289," Working Papers 289, Center for Global Development.
  2. Joshua Aizenman & Ilan Noy, 2012. "Macroeconomic Adjustment and the History of Crises in Open Economies," NBER Working Papers 18527, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Jan Willem van den End, 2013. "A macroprudential approach to address liquidity risk with the Loan-to-Deposit ratio," DNB Working Papers 372, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  4. Aysun, Uluc & Hepp, Ralf, 2013. "Identifying the balance sheet and the lending channels of monetary transmission: A loan-level analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 2812-2822.
  5. Feldkircher, Martin, 2012. "The Determinants of Vulnerability to the Global Financial Crisis 2008 to 2009: Credit Growth and Other Sources of Risk," BOFIT Discussion Papers 26/2012, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  6. Branimir Jovanovic, 2012. "How Policy Actions Affect Short-term Post-crisis Recovery?," CEIS Research Paper 253, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 05 Oct 2012.
  7. Neville Arjani & Graydon Paulin, 2013. "Lessons from the Financial Crisis: Bank Performance and Regulatory Reform," Discussion Papers 13-4, Bank of Canada.
  8. Carlos Montoro & Liliana Rojas-Suarez, 2012. "Credit in times of stress: lessons from Latin America," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
  9. Carlos Montoro & Liliana Rojas-Suarez, 2012. "Credit at times of stress: Latin American lessons from the global financial crisis," BIS Working Papers 370, Bank for International Settlements.
  10. Schreiner, Josef, 2012. "Developments in Selected CESEE Countries: Heterogeneous Growth Performance, Improving Fiscal and External Accounts," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2.
  11. repec:udt:wpbsdt:2012-03 is not listed on IDEAS

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