Weathering the financial crisis: good policy or good luck?
AbstractThe macroeconomic performance of individual countries varied markedly during the 2007-09 global financial crisis. While China's growth never dipped below 6% and Australia's worst quarter was no growth, the economies of Japan, Mexico and the United Kingdom suffered annualised GDP contractions of 5-10% per quarter for five to seven quarters in a row. We exploit this cross-country variation to examine whether a country's macroeconomic performance over this period was the result of pre-crisis policy decisions or just good luck. The answer is a bit of both. Better-performing economies featured a better-capitalised banking sector, lower loan-to-deposit ratios, a current account surplus, high foreign exchange reserves and low levels and growth rates of private sector credit-to-GDP. In other words, sound policy decisions and institutions reduced their vulnerability to the financial crisis. But these economies also featured a low level of financial openness and less exposure to US creditors, suggesting that good luck played a part.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Bank for International Settlements in its series BIS Working Papers with number 351.
Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2011
Date of revision:
financial crisis; principal components;
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-08-15 (All new papers)
- NEP-BAN-2011-08-15 (Banking)
- NEP-CBA-2011-08-15 (Central Banking)
- NEP-FDG-2011-08-15 (Financial Development & Growth)
- NEP-OPM-2011-08-15 (Open Economy Macroeconomic)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Olivier J. Blanchard & Mitali Das & Hamid Faruqee, 2010. "The Initial Impact of the Crisis on Emerging Market Countries," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 41(1 (Spring), pages 263-323.
- Andrew K. Rose & Mark M. Spiegel, 2011.
"Cross-country causes and consequences of the crisis: an update,"
Working Paper Series
2011-02, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Rose, Andrew K. & Spiegel, Mark M., 2011. "Cross-country causes and consequences of the crisis: An update," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 309-324, April.
- Rose, Andrew K & Spiegel, Mark, 2010. "Cross-Country Causes and Consequences of the Crisis: An Update," CEPR Discussion Papers 7901, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Andrew K. Rose & Mark M. Spiegel, 2010. "Cross-Country Causes and Consequences of the Crisis: An Update," NBER Working Papers 16243, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2010.
"Market freedom and the global recession,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
7884, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- James Yetman & Michael B. Devereux, 2010.
"leverage constraints and the international transmission of shocks,"
2010 Meeting Papers
1341, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Michael B. Devereux & James Yetman, 2010. "Leverage Constraints and the International Transmission of Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 71-105, 09.
- Michael B. Devereux & James Yetman, 2010. "Leverage Constraints and the International Transmission of Shocks," NBER Working Papers 16226, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Michael B Devereux & James Yetman, 2009. "Leverage Constraints and the International Transmission of Shocks," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2009-08, Reserve Bank of Australia.
- Michael B. Devereux, 2010. "Leverage constraints and the international transmission of shocks," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 45, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Michael B. Devereux & James Yetman, 2010. "Leverage Constraints and the International Transmission of Shocks," Working Papers 132010, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
- Matteo Ciccarelli & Benoît Mojon, 2008.
Working Paper Series
WP-08-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Matteo Ciccarelli & Benoît Mojon, 2007. "Global Inflation," Kiel Working Papers 1337, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
- Matteo Ciccarelli & Benoît Mojon, 2005. "Global Inflation," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 357, Central Bank of Chile.
- Ciccarelli, Matteo & Mojon, Benoît, 2005. "Global inflation," Working Paper Series 0537, European Central Bank.
- Andrew Filardo & Jason George & Mico Loretan & Guonan Ma & Anella Munro & Ilhyock Shim & Philip Wooldridge & James Yetman & Haibin Zhu, 2010. "The international financial crisis: timeline, impact and policy responses in Asia and the Pacific," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The international financial crisis and policy challenges in Asia and the Pacific, volume 52, pages 21-82 Bank for International Settlements.
- Andrew K. Rose & Mark M. Spiegel, .
"Cross-Country Causes and Consequences of the 2008 Crisis: Early Warning,"
6, Department of the Treasury, Ministry of the Economy and of Finance.
- Andrew K. Rose & Mark M. Spiegel, 2009. "Cross-Country Causes and Consequences of the 2008 Crisis: Early Warning," NBER Working Papers 15357, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Andrew K. Rose & Mark M. Spiegel, 2009. "Cross-country causes and consequences of the 2008 crisis: early warning," Working Paper Series 2009-17, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Rose, Andrew K & Spiegel, Mark, 2009. "Cross-Country Causes and Consequences of the 2008 Crisis: Early Warning," CEPR Discussion Papers 7354, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Fabian Valencia & Luc Laeven, 2008. "Systemic Banking Crises: A New Database," IMF Working Papers 08/224, International Monetary Fund.
- Jean Imbs, 2010.
"The First Global Recession in Decades,"
IMF Economic Review,
Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 58(2), pages 327-354, December.
- Gaston Gelos & Robert Rennhack & James P Walsh & Pelin Berkmen, 2009.
"The Global Financial Crisis: Explaining Cross-Country Differences in the Output Impact,"
IMF Working Papers
09/280, International Monetary Fund.
- Berkmen, S. Pelin & Gelos, Gaston & Rennhack, Robert & Walsh, James P., 2012. "The global financial crisis: Explaining cross-country differences in the output impact," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 42-59.
- Liliana Rojas-Suarez and Carlos Montoro, 2012. "Credit at Times of Stress: Latin American Lessons from the Global Financial Crisis - Working Paper 289," Working Papers 289, Center for Global Development.
- Joshua Aizenman & Ilan Noy, 2012.
"Macroeconomic Adjustment and the History of Crises in Open Economies,"
NBER Working Papers
18527, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Aizenman, Joshua & Noy, Ilan, 2013. "Macroeconomic adjustment and the history of crises in open economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 41-58.
- Aizenman, Joshua & Noy, Ilan, 2012. "Macroeconomic adjustment and the history of crises in open economies," Working Paper Series 2516, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
- Jan Willem van den End, 2013. "A macroprudential approach to address liquidity risk with the Loan-to-Deposit ratio," DNB Working Papers 372, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
- Aysun, Uluc & Hepp, Ralf, 2013. "Identifying the balance sheet and the lending channels of monetary transmission: A loan-level analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 2812-2822.
- Feldkircher, Martin, 2012. "The Determinants of Vulnerability to the Global Financial Crisis 2008 to 2009: Credit Growth and Other Sources of Risk," BOFIT Discussion Papers 26/2012, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
- Branimir Jovanovic, 2012. "How Policy Actions Affect Short-term Post-crisis Recovery?," CEIS Research Paper 253, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 05 Oct 2012.
- Neville Arjani & Graydon Paulin, 2013. "Lessons from the Financial Crisis: Bank Performance and Regulatory Reform," Discussion Papers 13-4, Bank of Canada.
- Carlos Montoro & Liliana Rojas-Suarez, 2012. "Credit in times of stress: lessons from Latin America," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
- Carlos Montoro & Liliana Rojas-Suarez, 2012. "Credit at times of stress: Latin American lessons from the global financial crisis," BIS Working Papers 370, Bank for International Settlements.
- Schreiner, Josef, 2012. "Developments in Selected CESEE Countries: Heterogeneous Growth Performance, Improving Fiscal and External Accounts," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2.
- repec:udt:wpbsdt:2012-03 is not listed on IDEAS
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Timo Laurmaa).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.