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Cross-Country Causes and Consequences of the Crisis: An Update

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  • Rose, Andrew K
  • Spiegel, Mark

Abstract

We update Rose and Spiegel (2009a, b) and search for simple quantitative models of macroeconomic and financial indicators of the "Great Recession" of 2008-09. We use a cross-country approach and examine a number of potential causes that have been found to be successful indicators of crisis intensity by other scholars. We check a number of different indicators of crisis intensity, and a variety of different country samples. While countries with higher income seemed to suffer worse crises, we find few clear reliable indicators in the pre-crisis data of the incidence of the Great Recession. Countries with current account surpluses seemed better insulated from slowdowns.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 7901.

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Date of creation: Jun 2010
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:7901

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Keywords: cross-section; current account; data; early warning; empirical; GDP; growth; recession;

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References

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  1. Domenico Giannone & Michèle Lenza & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2010. "Market Freedom and the Global Recession," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2010-020, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  2. Philip Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2010. "The Cross-Country Incidence of the Global Crisis," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp333, IIIS.
  3. Tobias Adrian & Hyun Song Shin, 2008. "Financial intermediaries, financial stability, and monetary policy," Staff Reports 346, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  4. Andrew K. Rose & Mark M. Spiegel, 2009. "Cross-Country Causes and Consequences of the 2008 Crisis: International Linkages and American Exposure," NBER Working Papers 15358, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Jeffrey A. Frankel & George Saravelos, 2010. "Are Leading Indicators of Financial Crises Useful for Assessing Country Vulnerability? Evidence from the 2008-09 Global Crisis," NBER Working Papers 16047, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  7. Gaston Gelos & Robert Rennhack & James P Walsh & Pelin Berkmen, 2009. "The Global Financial Crisis," IMF Working Papers 09/280, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Goldberger, Arthur S, 1972. "Structural Equation Methods in the Social Sciences," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 40(6), pages 979-1001, November.
  9. Steven B. Kamin & Laurie Pounder DeMarco, 2010. "How did a domestic housing slump turn into a global financial crisis?," International Finance Discussion Papers 994, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  10. Stijn Claessens & Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Deniz Igan & Luc Laeven, 2010. "Cross-country experiences and policy implications from the global financial crisis," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 25, pages 267-293, 04.
  11. Olivier J. Blanchard & Mitali Das & Hamid Faruqee, 2010. "The Initial Impact of the Crisis on Emerging Market Countries," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 41(1 (Spring), pages 263-323.
  12. Sophia Rabe-Hesketh & Anders Skrondal & Andrew Pickles, 2004. "GLLAMM Manual," U.C. Berkeley Division of Biostatistics Working Paper Series 1160, Berkeley Electronic Press.
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