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Is the United States an optimum currency area? an empirical analysis of regional business cycles

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Michael A. Kouparitsas

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Abstract

This paper develops a statistical model to study the business cycles of the eight U.S. BEA regions. By combining unobserved component and VAR techniques I identify not only common and idiosyncratic sources of innovation, but also common and idiosyncratic responses to common shocks. Using this model, I show, at the usual levels of statistical significance, that U.S. regions deviate significantly from Mundell's notion of an optimum currency area. I identify five core regions that have similar sources of disturbances and responses to disturbances (New England, Mideast, Great Lakes, Rocky Mountains and Far West) and three non-core regions that differ significantly from the core in their sources of disturbances and/or responses to disturbances (Southeast, Plains and Southwest), at business cycle frequencies.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago in its series Working Paper Series with number WP-01-22.

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Date of creation: 2001
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedhwp:wp-01-22

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Keywords: Business cycles ; Currency convertibility;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1994. "Identification and the effects of monetary policy shocks," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 94-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  2. Gerald Carlino & Robert Defina, 1998. "The Differential Regional Effects Of Monetary Policy," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 572-587, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Gerald Carlino & Robert DeFina, 1993. "Regional income dynamics," Working Papers 93-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
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  4. Barry Eichengreen., 1990. "Is Europe an Optimum Currency Area?," Economics Working Papers 90-151, University of California at Berkeley.
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  5. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1995. "Measuring Business Cycles Approximate Band-Pass Filters for Economic Time Series," NBER Working Papers 5022, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Sims, Christopher A, 1972. "Money, Income, and Causality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(4), pages 540-52, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Watson, Mark W. & Engle, Robert F., 1983. "Alternative algorithms for the estimation of dynamic factor, mimic and varying coefficient regression models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 385-400, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Michael A. Kouparitsas, 1999. "Is the EMU a viable common currency area? a VAR analysis of regional business cycles," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q IV, pages 2-20. [Downloadable!]
  9. Tamim Bayoumi and Barry Eichengreen., 1992. "Shocking Aspects of European Monetary Unification," Economics Working Papers 92-187, University of California at Berkeley. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Theodore M. Crone, 2003. "An alternative definition of economic regions in the U.S. based on similarities in state business cycles," Working Papers 03-23, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
  2. Michael A. Kouparitsas, 2002. "Understanding U.S. regional cyclical comovement: How important are spillovers and common shocks?," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q IV, pages 30-41. [Downloadable!]
  3. Arthur Grimes, 2005. "Regional and Industry Cycles in Australasia: Implications for a Common Currency," Working Papers 05_04, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Sergio Rebelo, 2005. "Real Business Cycle Models: Past, Present, and Future," NBER Working Papers 11401, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Elizabeth C. Wakerly & Byron G. Scott & James M. Nason, 2004. "Common trends and common cycles in Canada: who knew so much has been going on?," Working Paper 2004-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy M. Piger & Howard J. Wall, 2004. "Business cycle phases in U.S. states," Working Papers 2003-011, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Michael T. Owyang & Howard J. Wall, 2004. "Structural breaks and regional disparities in the transmission of monetary policy," Working Papers 2003-008, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  8. Arthur Grimes, 2005. "Intra & Inter-Regional Shocks: A New Metric with an Application to Australasian Currency Union," Working Papers 05_03, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research. [Downloadable!]
  9. Theodore M. Crone, 2004. "A redefinition of economic regions in the U.S," Working Papers 04-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
  10. Viv Hall & John McDermott, 2008. "An Unobserved Components Common Cycle For Australia? Implications For A Common Currency," CAMA Working Papers 2008-11, Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
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