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Is the United States an optimum currency area? an empirical analysis of regional business cycles

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  • Michael A. Kouparitsas

Abstract

This paper develops a statistical model to study the business cycles of the eight U.S. BEA regions. By combining unobserved component and VAR techniques I identify not only common and idiosyncratic sources of innovation, but also common and idiosyncratic responses to common shocks. Using this model, I show, at the usual levels of statistical significance, that U.S. regions deviate significantly from Mundell's notion of an optimum currency area. I identify five core regions that have similar sources of disturbances and responses to disturbances (New England, Mideast, Great Lakes, Rocky Mountains and Far West) and three non-core regions that differ significantly from the core in their sources of disturbances and/or responses to disturbances (Southeast, Plains and Southwest), at business cycle frequencies.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago in its series Working Paper Series with number WP-01-22.

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Date of creation: 2001
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedhwp:wp-01-22

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Related research

Keywords: Business cycles ; Currency convertibility;

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References

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  1. Eichengreen, Barry, 1990. "Is Europe an Optimum Currency Area?," CEPR Discussion Papers 478, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Gerald Carlino & Robert DeFina, 1993. "Regional income dynamics," Working Papers 93-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  3. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1995. "Measuring Business Cycles Approximate Band-Pass Filters for Economic Time Series," NBER Working Papers 5022, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Watson, Mark W. & Engle, Robert F., 1983. "Alternative algorithms for the estimation of dynamic factor, mimic and varying coefficient regression models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 385-400, December.
  5. Bayoumi, Tamim & Eichengreen, Barry, 1992. "Shocking Aspects of European Monetary Unification," CEPR Discussion Papers 643, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Michael A. Kouparitsas, 1999. "Is the EMU a viable common currency area? a VAR analysis of regional business cycles," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q IV, pages 2-20.
  7. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1994. "Identification and the effects of monetary policy shocks," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 94-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  8. Sims, Christopher A, 1972. "Money, Income, and Causality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(4), pages 540-52, September.
  9. Gerald Carlino & Robert Defina, 1998. "The Differential Regional Effects Of Monetary Policy," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 572-587, November.
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