An Unobserved Components Common Cycle For Australia? Implications For A Common Currency
AbstractAn important requirement, prior to countries’ adopting a common currency or maintaining an independent monetary policy, is establishing the extent to which they share a common economic cycle and how susceptible they are to region-specific shocks. For example, Kouparitsas (2001) has examined whether 8 US BEA regions are largely subject to common sources of disturbance, and assesses whether their regional cycles are consistent with a common currency area for the US. Norman and Walker (2007) conclude for 6 Australian States that the major source of the State fluctuations is shocks which are common to all States. But their variance analysis also shows that each overall State cycle is driven partly by fluctuations specific to that State, in particular for Western Australia. Findings such as these also have important implications for the relative strengths of influence of fiscal and regional policies, and of external shocks. Using similar unobserved components methodology (e.g. Watson and Engle (1983), Kouparitsas (2001, 2002), Norman and Walker (2007), and Hall and McDermott (2008)), we establish an Australasian common cycle, and assess the extent to which the region-specific cycles of 6 Australian States and NZ are additionally important. Our results suggest that: (1) structural breaks play an important role; (2) New Zealand’s region-specific growth cycle has exhibited distinctively different features, relative to the common cycle; and (3) for every Australasian region, the regionspecific cycle variance dominates that of the common cycle. Our findings on the distinctiveness of New Zealand’s output and employment cycles are consistent with New Zealand retaining the flexibility of a separate currency and monetary policy.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University in its series CAMA Working Papers with number 2008-11.
Date of creation: Apr 2008
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Other versions of this item:
- Hall, Viv B & McDermott, C John, 2011. "An unobserved components common cycle for Australasia? Implications for a common currency," Working Paper Series 1548, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
- F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
- R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
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