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Sources of Fluctuations: The Case of MENA

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  • Hideaki Hirata
  • Sunghyun Henry Kim
  • M. Ayhan Kose

Abstract

We analyze the sources of macroeconomic fluctuations in the emerging countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. The model economy captures some important structural characteristics of the MENA countries and can replicate the main properties of their business cycles. The results suggest that a substantial fraction of cyclical fluctuations in the MENA countries is explained by terms of trade shocks, which account for more than 60 percent of the variation in aggregate output. They also explain the bulk of cyclical fluctuations in aggregate consumption. Domestic productivity shocks explain close to 40 percent of business cycle variation in aggregate output. Government spending shocks and world interest shocks are also important in accounting for the volatility of business cycles in certain macroeconomic variables, but their overall effect on the dynamics of aggregate output appears to be relatively small.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by M.E. Sharpe, Inc. in its journal Emerging Markets Finance and Trade.

Volume (Year): 43 (2007)
Issue (Month): 1 (February)
Pages: 5-34

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Handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:43:y:2007:i:1:p:5-34

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Web page: http://mesharpe.metapress.com/link.asp?target=journal&id=111024

Related research

Keywords: business cycles; emerging markets; globalization; macroeconomic fluctuations; MENA;

References

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  1. Dalia Hakura, 2004. "Growth in the Middle East and North Africa," IMF Working Papers 04/56, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Alexander W. Hoffmaister & Jorge Roldos, 1997. "Are Business Cycles Different in Asia and Latin America?," IMF Working Papers 97/9, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Serdar Sayan, 2004. "Guest Workers' Remittances and Output Fluctuations in Host and Home Countries : The Case of Remittances from Turkish Workers in Germany," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 40(6), pages 68-81, November.
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  5. Sunghyun Henry Kim & M. Ayhan Kose & Michael G. Plummer, 2003. "Dynamics of Business Cycles in Asia: Differences and Similarities," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(3), pages 462-477, 08.
  6. Bernd Lucke, 2004. "Real Interest Rates and Productivity Shocks : Why Are Business Cycles Negatively Correlated Between the European Union and Jordan?," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 40(6), pages 82-94, November.
  7. Massimo Tamberi, 2006. "Specialization and Growth Perspectives in the South Mediterranean Area," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 3(2), pages 289-314, December.
  8. Hideaki Hirata & Sunghyun Henry Kim & M. Ayhan Kose, 2004. "Integration and Fluctuations : The Case of MENA," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 40(6), pages 48-67, November.
  9. Baxter, Marianne, 1996. "Are Consumer Durables Important for Business Cycles?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 147-55, February.
  10. Kim, Sunghyun Henry & Kose, M. Ayhan, 2003. "Dynamics Of Open-Economy Business-Cycle Models: Role Of The Discount Factor," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(02), pages 263-290, April.
  11. Jonathan D. Ostry & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1992. "Private Saving and Terms of Trade Shocks: Evidence from Developing Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(3), pages 495-517, September.
  12. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & McDermott, C John & Prasad, Eswar S, 2000. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Developing Countries: Some Stylized Facts," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 14(2), pages 251-85, May.
  13. Michael A. Kouparitsas, 1996. "North-South financial integration and business cycles," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues WP-96-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  14. Samir Makdisi,Zeki Fattah and Imed Limam, . "Determinants of Growth in the Mena Countries," API-Working Paper Series 0301, Arab Planning Institute - Kuwait, Information Center.
  15. Henry Kim & Soyoung Kim & Yunjong Wang, 2005. "International Capital Flows and Boom-Bust Cycles in the Asia Pacific Region," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 0506, Department of Economics, Tufts University.
  16. Haitham A. Al Zoubi & Aktham Maghyereh, 2005. "Examining complex unit roots in the MENA countries industrial production indices," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(4), pages 255-259.
  17. Sims, Christopher A, 2002. "Solving Linear Rational Expectations Models," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 20(1-2), pages 1-20, October.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Balcilar, Mehmet & Bagzibagli, Kemal, 2010. "Sources of Macroeconomic Fluctuations in MENA Countries," MPRA Paper 44351, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Hideaki Hirata & M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok, 2013. "Regionalization vs. Globalization," CAMA Working Papers 2013-09, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  3. Emilio Espino & Julian Kozlowski & Juan M. Sánchez, 2013. "Regionalization vs. globalization," Working Papers 2013-002, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

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