Sources of Fluctuations: The Case of MENA
AbstractWe analyze the sources of macroeconomic fluctuations in the emerging countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. The model economy captures some important structural characteristics of the MENA countries and can replicate the main properties of their business cycles. The results suggest that a substantial fraction of cyclical fluctuations in the MENA countries is explained by terms of trade shocks, which account for more than 60 percent of the variation in aggregate output. They also explain the bulk of cyclical fluctuations in aggregate consumption. Domestic productivity shocks explain close to 40 percent of business cycle variation in aggregate output. Government spending shocks and world interest shocks are also important in accounting for the volatility of business cycles in certain macroeconomic variables, but their overall effect on the dynamics of aggregate output appears to be relatively small.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by M.E. Sharpe, Inc. in its journal Emerging Markets Finance and Trade.
Volume (Year): 43 (2007)
Issue (Month): 1 (February)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://mesharpe.metapress.com/link.asp?target=journal&id=111024
business cycles; emerging markets; globalization; macroeconomic fluctuations; MENA;
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Agenor, Pierre-Richard & McDermott, C John & Prasad, Eswar S, 2000.
"Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Developing Countries: Some Stylized Facts,"
World Bank Economic Review,
World Bank Group, vol. 14(2), pages 251-85, May.
- C. John McDermott & Eswar Prasad & Pierre-Richard AgÃ©nor, 1999. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Developing Countries - Some Stylized Facts," IMF Working Papers 99/35, International Monetary Fund.
- Haitham A. Al Zoubi & Aktham Maghyereh, 2005. "Examining complex unit roots in the MENA countries industrial production indices," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(4), pages 255-259.
- Bernd Lucke, 2004. "Real Interest Rates and Productivity Shocks : Why Are Business Cycles Negatively Correlated Between the European Union and Jordan?," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 40(6), pages 82-94, November.
- Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kahn, Charles M, 1980. "The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1305-11, July.
- Massimo Tamberi, 2006. "Specialization and Growth Perspectives in the South Mediterranean Area," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 3(2), pages 289-314, December.
- Sunghyun Henry Kim & M. Ayhan Kose & Michael G. Plummer, 2003. "Dynamics of Business Cycles in Asia: Differences and Similarities," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(3), pages 462-477, 08.
- Michael A. Kouparitsas, 1996. "North-South financial integration and business cycles," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues WP-96-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Henry Kim & Soyoung Kim & Yunjong Wang, 2005. "International Capital Flows and Boom-Bust Cycles in the Asia Pacific Region," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 0506, Department of Economics, Tufts University.
- Jonathan David Ostry & Carmen Reinhart, 1991.
"Private Saving and Terms of Trade Shocks: Evidence from Developing Countries,"
IMF Working Papers
91/100, International Monetary Fund.
- Jonathan D. Ostry & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1992. "Private Saving and Terms of Trade Shocks: Evidence from Developing Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(3), pages 495-517, September.
- Samir Makdisi,Zeki Fattah and Imed Limam, . "Determinants of Growth in the Mena Countries," API-Working Paper Series 0301, Arab Planning Institute - Kuwait, Information Center.
- Alexander W. Hoffmaister & Jorge Roldos, 1997. "Are Business Cycles Different in Asia and Latin America?," IMF Working Papers 97/9, International Monetary Fund.
- Hideaki Hirata & Sunghyun Henry Kim & M. Ayhan Kose, 2004. "Integration and Fluctuations : The Case of MENA," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 40(6), pages 48-67, November.
- Kim, Sunghyun Henry & Kose, M. Ayhan, 2003. "Dynamics Of Open-Economy Business-Cycle Models: Role Of The Discount Factor," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(02), pages 263-290, April.
- Serdar Sayan, 2004. "Guest Workers' Remittances and Output Fluctuations in Host and Home Countries : The Case of Remittances from Turkish Workers in Germany," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 40(6), pages 68-81, November.
- Dalia Hakura, 2004. "Growth in the Middle East and North Africa," IMF Working Papers 04/56, International Monetary Fund.
- Emilio Espino & Julian Kozlowski & Juan M. Sánchez, 2013. "Regionalization vs. globalization," Working Papers 2013-002, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Hideaki Hirata & M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok, 2013.
"Regionalization vs. Globalization,"
CAMA Working Papers
2013-09, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Hideaki Hirata & M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok, 2013. "Regionalization vs. Globalization," IMF Working Papers 13/19, International Monetary Fund.
- Hideaki Hirata & M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok, 2013. "Regionalization vs. Globalization," KoÃ§ University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1302, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
- HIRATA Hideaki & Ayhan KOSE & Christopher OTROK, 2013. "Regionalization vs. Globalization," Discussion papers 13004, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
- Balcilar, Mehmet & Bagzibagli, Kemal, 2010. "Sources of Macroeconomic Fluctuations in MENA Countries," MPRA Paper 44351, University Library of Munich, Germany.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Chris Nguyen).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.