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Real Output Co-movements in East Asia: Any Evidence for a Monetary Union?

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  • Kiyotaka Sato
  • Zhaoyong Zhang

Abstract

The East Asian region has experienced astonishing economic growth and integration over the past few decades. It is generally believed that a high degree of integration in the region would greatly shape the economic structure of each individual economy and has direct implications for the effectiveness of domestic stabilisation policy and policy coordination. This paper empirically examines the feasibility of forming a monetary union in East Asia by assessing the real output co-movements among these economies. As suggested by the optimum currency area (OCA) theory that losing monetary independence would be the major cost for adopting a common currency, it would be less costly for the economies to form a monetary union if the business cycles are synchronised across countries. The cointegration test and the Vahid and Engle (1993 ) test for common business cycles are conducted to examine their long-run relationship and short-run interactions in real outputs, respectively. Our study found that some pair countries in the region share both the long-run and short-run synchronous movements of the real outputs. In particular, the short-run common business cycles are found in some pairs of ASEAN economies consisting of Singapore, Thailand and Indonesia, and in the Northeast Asian region consisting of Hong Kong, Korea and Mainland China, as well as between Japan and Taiwan. These findings have important implications for the economies in terms of adjustment costs when considering the adoption of a monetary union. Copyright 2006 The Authors Journal compilation Blackwell Publishing Ltd. 2006 .

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal World Economy.

Volume (Year): 29 (2006)
Issue (Month): 12 (December)
Pages: 1671-1689

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Handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:29:y:2006:i:12:p:1671-1689

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Cited by:
  1. Nagayasu, Jun, 2010. "Macroeconomic Interdependence in East Asia," MPRA Paper 27129, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Miankhel, Adil Khan & Kalirajan, Kaliappa & Thangavelu, Shandre, 2010. "Integration, decoupling and the global financial crisis: A global perspective," MPRA Paper 22837, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Batorova, Ivana, 2008. "China in the World Economy: Dynamic Correlation Analysis of Business Cycles," Working Papers RP2008/02, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  4. Vu Tuan Khai, 2009. "Re-examining Symmetry of Shocks for East Asia: Results Using a VAR with Sign Restrictions," Global COE Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series gd08-042, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
  5. FE, Doukouré Charles, 2010. "Réduction de Droits de Douane et Convergence Réelle dans l'UEMOA
    [Tariffs Reduction and Real Convergence in WAEMU]    ," MPRA Paper 26763, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Hallett, Andrew Hughes & Richter, Christian, 2011. "Trans-Pacific Economic Relations and US-China Business Cycles: Convergence within Asia versus US Economic Leadership," ADBI Working Papers 292, Asian Development Bank Institute.
  7. Jarko Fidrmuc & Iikka Korhonen, 2009. "The Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on Business Cycles in Asian Emerging Economies," CESifo Working Paper Series 2710, CESifo Group Munich.
  8. Hideaki Hirata & Keisuke Otsu, 2011. "Accounting for the economic relationship between Japan and the Asian Tigers," Studies in Economics 1120, Department of Economics, University of Kent.
  9. Allegret, Jean-Pierre & Essaadi, Essahbi, 2011. "Business cycles synchronization in East Asian economy: Evidences from time-varying coherence study," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 351-365.
  10. Myint Moe Chit & Marian Rizov & Dirk Willenbockel, 2010. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Exports: New Empirical Evidence from the Emerging East Asian Economies," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(2), pages 239-263, 02.
  11. Boldea, O. & Engwerda, J.C. & Michalak, T. & Plasmans, J.E.J. & Salmah, S., 2011. "A Simulation Study of an ASEAN Monetary Union (Replaces CentER DP 2010-100)," Discussion Paper 2011-098, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  12. Adom, Assandé Désiré & Sharma, Subhash C. & Morshed, A.K.M. Mahbub, 2010. "Economic integration in Africa," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 245-253, August.
  13. Gilles de Truchis & Benjamin Keddad, 2012. "South East Asian Monetary Integration," AMSE Working Papers 1229, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, Marseille, France, revised 05 Nov 2012.

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