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Trade Intensity and Business Cycle Synchronicity in Africa

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  • S. Jules-Armand Tapsoba

Abstract

Business cycle synchronicity, which is the key requirement for sharing a common currency, is not particularly strong within the prospective African monetary unions. However, this parameter is not irrevocably fixed and may be endogeneous vis-à-vis the integration process. For example, trade may increase the similarity of economic disturbances. This paper tests such an effect among the 53 African countries from 1965 to 2004. The estimated results suggest that trade intensity increases the synchronisation of business cycles in the African context. The magnitude of the 'endogeneity effect' is, however, smaller than similar estimates among industrial countries. Copyright 2009 The author 2008. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Centre for the Study of African Economies. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org, Oxford University Press.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) in its journal Journal of African Economies.

Volume (Year): 18 (2009)
Issue (Month): 2 (March)
Pages: 287-318

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Handle: RePEc:oup:jafrec:v:18:y:2009:i:2:p:287-318

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Cited by:
  1. Fabrizio Carmignani, 2010. "Endogenous Optimal Currency Areas: the Case of the Central African Economic and Monetary Community," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 19(1), pages 25-51, January.
  2. Adolfo Barajas & Ralph Chami & Christian Ebeke & Sampawende J.-A. Tapsoba, 2012. "Workers’ Remittances," IMF Working Papers 12/251, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Sampawende Jules Tapsoba, 2011. "Union Monétaire en Afrique de l'Ouest: Quelles Réponses à l'Hétérogénéité des Chocs ?," Working Papers halshs-00554309, HAL.
  4. HIRATA Hideaki & Ayhan KOSE & Christopher OTROK, 2013. "Regionalization vs. Globalization," Discussion papers 13004, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
  5. Emilio Espino & Julian Kozlowski & Juan M. Sánchez, 2013. "Regionalization vs. globalization," Working Papers 2013-002, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  6. Gammadigbé, Vigninou, 2013. "Endogénéité des critères d'une zone monétaire optimale: un réexamen
    [Endogeneity of the optimum currency area criteria: a re-examination]
    ," MPRA Paper 46727, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Willie Lahari, 2011. "Assessing Business Cycle Synchronisation - Prospects for a Pacific Islands Currency Union," Working Papers 1110, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2011.

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