Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

An unobserved components common cycle for Australasia? Implications for a common currency

Contents:

Author Info

  • Hall, Viv B
  • McDermott, C John

Abstract

We use unobserved components methodology to establish an Australasian common cycle, and assess the extent to which region-specific cycles of Australian States and New Zealand are additionally important. West Australian and New Zealand region-specific growth cycles have exhibited distinctively different features, relative to the common cycle. For every Australasian region, the region-specific cycle variance dominates that of the common cycle, in contrast to findings for U.S. BEA regions and prior work for Australian States. The distinctiveness of New Zealand’s output and employment cycles is consistent with New Zealand retaining the flexibility of a separate currency and monetary policy, for periods when significant region-specific shocks occur.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://researcharchive.vuw.ac.nz/handle/10063/1548
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance in its series Working Paper Series with number 1548.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:vuw:vuwecf:1548

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Alice Fong, Administrator, School of Economics and Finance, Victoria Business School, Victoria University of Wellington, PO Box 600 Wellington, New Zealand
Phone: +64 (4) 463-5353
Fax: +64 (4) 463-5014
Email:
Web page: http://www.victoria.ac.nz/sef
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Australasian common cycle; regional cycles; Unobserved components; common currency; New Zealand; Australia;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(449), pages 1009-25, July.
  2. David Norman & Thomas Walker, 2004. "Co-movement of Australian State Business Cycles," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2004-09, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  3. Mark D. Partridge & Dan S. Rickman, 2005. "Regional cyclical asymmetries in an optimal currency area: an analysis using US state data," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 57(3), pages 373-397, July.
  4. Thomas Walker & David Norman, 2004. "Co-movement of Australian State Business Cycles," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 334, Econometric Society.
  5. Gerald Carlino & Keith Sill, 2001. "Regional Income Fluctuations: Common Trends And Common Cycles," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(3), pages 446-456, August.
  6. Robert J. Hodrick & Edward Prescott, 1981. "Post-War U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Discussion Papers 451, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  7. David Norman & Thomas Walker, 2007. "Co-Movement Of Australian State Business Cycles ," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(4), pages 360-374, December.
  8. Grimes, Arthur, 2005. "Regional and industry cycles in Australasia: Implications for a common currency," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 380-397, June.
  9. Aaron Drew & Viv Hall & John McDermott & Robert St. Clair, 2001. "Would adopting the Australian dollar provide superior monetary policy in New Zealand?," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2001/03, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  10. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1995. "Measuring Business Cycles Approximate Band-Pass Filters for Economic Time Series," NBER Working Papers 5022, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Dungey, Mardi & Fry, Renée, 2009. "The identification of fiscal and monetary policy in a structural VAR," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1147-1160, November.
  12. M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Charles H. Whiteman, 2003. "International Business Cycles: World, Region, and Country-Specific Factors," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1216-1239, September.
  13. Zhongjun Qu & Pierre Perron, 2005. "Estimating and testing structural changes in multivariate regressions," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2005-012, Boston University - Department of Economics.
  14. Robert F. Engle & João Victor Issler, 1993. "Common trends and common cycles in Latin America," Revista Brasileira de Economia, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 47(2), pages 149-176, April.
  15. Hall, Viv B. & McDermott, C. John, 2009. "The New Zealand Business Cycle," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(04), pages 1050-1069, August.
  16. Engle, Robert F & Kozicki, Sharon, 1993. "Testing for Common Features," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(4), pages 369-80, October.
  17. Viv B. Hall, 2005. "An Australasian Currency, New Zealand Adopting The Us Dollar, Or An Independent Monetary Policy?," CAMA Working Papers 2005-22, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  18. Vahid, F & Engle, Robert F, 1993. "Common Trends and Common Cycles," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(4), pages 341-60, Oct.-Dec..
  19. Watson, Mark W., 1986. "Univariate detrending methods with stochastic trends," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 49-75, July.
  20. Michael A. Kouparitsas, 2001. "Is the United States an optimum currency area? an empirical analysis of regional business cycles," Working Paper Series WP-01-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  21. Nils Bj�Rksten & �Zer Karagedikli & Christopher Plantier & Arthur Grimes, 2004. "What Does the Taylor Rule Say About a New Zealand-Australia Currency Union?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 80(s1), pages S34-S42, 09.
  22. Paul de Grauwe & Francesco Paolo Mongelli, 2005. "Endogeneities of Optimum Currency Areas: What brings Countries Sharing a Single Currency Closer together?," Working Papers de Economia (Economics Working Papers) 29, Departamento de Economia, Gestão e Engenharia Industrial, Universidade de Aveiro.
  23. Engle, Robert F & Kozicki, Sharon, 1993. "Testing for Common Features: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(4), pages 393-95, October.
  24. Arthur Grimes, 2006. "Intra & inter-regional industry shocks: A new metric with application to Australasian currency union," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(1), pages 23-44.
  25. Watson, Mark W. & Engle, Robert F., 1983. "Alternative algorithms for the estimation of dynamic factor, mimic and varying coefficient regression models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 385-400, December.
  26. Arthur Grimes, 2007. "Trans-Tasman shocks: A mediating role for the NZDAUD," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(2), pages 237-250.
  27. Gerlach, Stefan & Yiu, Matthew S., 2004. "Estimating output gaps in Asia: A cross-country study," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 115-136, March.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Hideaki Hirata & M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok, 2013. "Regionalization vs. Globalization," IMF Working Papers 13/19, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Emilio Espino & Julian Kozlowski & Juan M. Sánchez, 2013. "Regionalization vs. globalization," Working Papers 2013-002, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:vuw:vuwecf:1548. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Library Technology Services).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.