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Business Cycle Correlations in Asia-Pacific

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  • Mark Crosby

    (University of Melbourne)

Abstract

In this paper business cycle correlations between countries in the Asia-Pacific region are examined. A number of authors have suggested that trade intensity between pairs of countries increases business cycle synchronisation, though theoretically it is not clear that this should be the case. In this paper trade intensity and a number of other macroeconomic and structural variables are used to try and explain synchronisation. Our findings suggest that trade does not explain correlations in the Asia-Pacific region.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research in its series Working Papers with number 042003.

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Length: 16 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hkm:wpaper:042003

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  1. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1996. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," CEPR Discussion Papers 1473, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Todd E. Clark & Eric van Wincoop, 1999. "Borders and business cycles," Staff Reports 91, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  3. Glenn Otto & Graham Voss & Luke Willard, 2001. "Understanding OECD Output Correlations," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2001-05, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  4. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J & Kydland, Finn E, 1992. "International Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(4), pages 745-75, August.
  5. Robert C. Feenstra & James R. Markusen & Andrew K. Rose, 2001. "Using the gravity equation to differentiate among alternative theories of trade," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 34(2), pages 430-447, May.
  6. Engel, Charles M & Rose, Andrew K, 2001. "Currency Unions and International Integration," CEPR Discussion Papers 2659, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Canova, Fabio, 1998. "Detrending and business cycle facts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 475-512, May.
  8. Canova, Fabio, 1998. "Detrending and business cycle facts: A user's guide," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 533-540, May.
  9. Canova, Fabio & Dellas, Harris, 1993. "Trade interdependence and the international business cycle," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1-2), pages 23-47, February.
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Cited by:
  1. HIRATA Hideaki & Ayhan KOSE & Christopher OTROK, 2013. "Regionalization vs. Globalization," Discussion papers 13004, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
  2. Yetman, James, 2011. "Exporting recessions: International links and the business cycle," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 110(1), pages 12-14, January.
  3. Simeon Coleman, 2011. "Investigating Business Cycle Synchronization in West Africa," Working Papers 2011/01, Nottingham Trent University, Nottingham Business School, Economics Division.
  4. Ghassan Dibeh, 2005. "A Kaleckian model of business cycle synchronization," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(2), pages 253-267.
  5. Nagayasu, Jun, 2010. "Macroeconomic interdependence in East Asia," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 219-227, December.
  6. Emilio Espino & Julian Kozlowski & Juan M. Sánchez, 2013. "Regionalization vs. globalization," Working Papers 2013-002, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  7. Mark Crosby & Philip Bodman, 2005. "When the US Sneezes, Do We Need to Catch a Cold? Historical and Future Linkages between the Australian and US Business Cycles," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Christopher Kent & David Norman (ed.), The Changing Nature of the Business Cycle Reserve Bank of Australia.
  8. Moneta, Fabio & Rüffer, Rasmus, 2009. "Business cycle synchronisation in East Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 1-12, January.
  9. Rana, Pradumna B., 2006. "Economic Integration in East Asia: Trends, Prospects, and a Possible Roadmap," Working Papers on Regional Economic Integration 2, Asian Development Bank.
  10. Allegret, Jean-Pierre & Essaadi, Essahbi, 2011. "Business cycles synchronization in East Asian economy: Evidences from time-varying coherence study," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 351-365.
  11. Moneta, Fabio & Rüffer, Rasmus, 2006. "Business cycle synchronisation in East Asia," Working Paper Series 0671, European Central Bank.
  12. Kumakura, Masanaga, 2006. "Trade and business cycle co-movements in Asia-Pacific," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 622-645, October.
  13. Kamel GARFA, 2013. "Couplage Ou Découplage Des Cycles Économiques Des Mena : Une Approche En Termes De Modèle A Facteurs Dynamiques," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 38, pages 225-247.
  14. Rana, Pradumna B., 2007. "Economic integration and synchronization of business cycles in East Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 711-725, October.

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