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Trade Linkages and Output-Multiplier Effects: a Structural VAR Approach with a Focus on Asia

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  • Tilak Abeysinghe
  • Kristin Forbes

Abstract

This paper develops a structural VAR model to measure how a shock to one country affects other countries' GDP. It uses trade linkages to estimate the multiplier effects as a shock is transmitted through output fluctuations and introduces a new specification strategy that reduces the number of unknowns and allows cross-country relationships to vary over time. This model is used to examine the impact of shocks to 11 Asian countries, the US, and the rest of the OECD. Impulse-response matrices suggest that these multiplier effects are large and can transmit shocks in very different patterns than predicted from a bilateral-trade matrix. Copyright Blackwell Publishing Ltd 2005..

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal Review of International Economics.

Volume (Year): 13 (2005)
Issue (Month): 2 (05)
Pages: 356-375

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Handle: RePEc:bla:reviec:v:13:y:2005:i:2:p:356-375

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  1. Olivier J. Blanchard & Mark W. Watson, 1987. "Are Business Cycles All Alike?," NBER Working Papers 1392, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Bernanke, Ben S., 1986. "Alternative explanations of the money-income correlation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 49-99, January.
  3. Kristin J. Forbes, 2001. "Are Trade Linkages Important Determinants of Country Vulnerability to Crises?," NBER Working Papers 8194, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Kristin Forbes, 2000. "The Asian Flu and Russian Virus: Firm-level Evidence on How Crises are Transmitted Internationally," NBER Working Papers 7807, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. ZELLNER, Arnold & PALM, Franz, . "Time series analysis and simultaneous equation econometric models," CORE Discussion Papers RP -173, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  6. Christopher A. Sims, 1986. "Are forecasting models usable for policy analysis?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 2-16.
  7. Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y., 1997. "Generalised Impulse Response Analysis in Linear Multivariate Models," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9710, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  8. Glick, Reuven & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "Contagion and Trade: Why are Currency Crises Regional," CEPR Discussion Papers 1947, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Abeysinghe, Tilak, 2001. "Estimation of direct and indirect impact of oil price on growth," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 147-153, November.
  10. John Freebairn & Bill Griffiths, 2006. "Introduction," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 82(s1), pages S1-S1, 09.
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