Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Is Bank Portfolio Riskiness Procyclical? Evidence from Italy using a Vector Autoregression

Contents:

Author Info

  • Juri Marcucci
  • Mario Quagliariello

Abstract

This study analyzes the cyclical behaviour of the default rates of Italian bank borrowers over the last two decades. A vector autoregression (VAR) modelling technique is employed to assess the extent to which macroeconomic shocks affect the banking sector (first round effect). The VAR also helps to disentangle the feedback effects from the financial system to the real side of the economy. We find evidence of the first round effect and some support for the feedback effect which operates via the bank capital channel.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.york.ac.uk/media/economics/documents/discussionpapers/2005/0509.pdf
File Function: Main text
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of York in its series Discussion Papers with number 05/09.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation:
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:yor:yorken:05/09

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Department of Economics and Related Studies, University of York, York, YO10 5DD, United Kingdom
Phone: (0)1904 323776
Fax: (0)1904 323759
Email:
Web page: http://www.york.ac.uk/economics/
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: First-round effect; procyclicality; feedback effects; VAR; banks; default rate;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Joe Peek & Eric Rosengren, 1993. "The Capital Crunch: Neither A Borrower Nor A Lender Be," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 243, Boston College Department of Economics.
  2. Gambacorta, Leonardo, 2001. "Bank-specific characteristics and monetary policy transmission: the case of Italy," Working Paper Series 0103, European Central Bank.
  3. Ben S. Bernanke, 1986. "Alternative Explanations of the Money-Income Correlation," NBER Working Papers 1842, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," NBER Working Papers 5146, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Angeloni,I. & Buttiglione,L. & Ferri,G. & Gaiotti,E., 1995. "The Credit Channel of Policy Across Heterogeneous Banks:the Case of Italy," Papers 256, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
  6. Gambacorta, Leonardo & Mistrulli, Paolo Emilio, 2004. "Does bank capital affect lending behavior?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 436-457, October.
  7. Laurence Ball, 1998. "Policy Rules for Open Economies," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9806, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  8. Michele Gambera, 2000. "Simple forecasts of bank loan quality in the business cycle," Emerging Issues, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Apr.
  9. Anil K. Kashyap & Jeremy C. Stein, 1997. "The role of banks in monetary policy: a survey with implications for the European Monetary Union," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Sep, pages 2-18.
  10. Sevestre, Patrick & Martinez-Pages, Jorge & Gambacorta, Leonardo & Ehrmann, Michael & Worms, Andreas, 2001. "Financial systems and the role of banks in monetary policy transmission in the euro area," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2001,18, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  11. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
  12. Leonardo Gambacorta & Paolo Emilio Mistrulli, 2003. "Bank Capital and Lending Behaviour: Empirical Evidence for Italy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 486, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  13. Garratt, A. & Lee, K. & Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y., 1998. "A Long-run Structural Macro-econometric Model of the UK," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9812, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  14. Glenn Hoggarth & Andrew Logan & Lea Zicchino, 2005. "Macro stress tests of UK banks," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Investigating the relationship between the financial and real economy, volume 22, pages 392-408 Bank for International Settlements.
  15. Laeven, Luc & Majnoni, Giovanni, 2001. "Loan loss provisioning and economic slowdowns : too much, too late?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2749, The World Bank.
  16. Blake, Andrew P & Westaway, Peter F, 1996. "Credibility and the Effectiveness of Inflation Targeting Regimes," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 64(0), pages 28-50, Suppl..
  17. Olivier J. Blanchard & Mark W. Watson, 1986. "Are Business Cycles All Alike?," NBER Chapters, in: The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, pages 123-180 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Andrews, Donald W K, 1991. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 817-58, May.
  19. Peek, Joe & Rosengren, Eric S & Tootell, Geoffrey M B, 2003. " Identifying the Macroeconomic Effect of Loan Supply Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(6), pages 931-46, December.
  20. Kishan, Ruby P & Opiela, Timothy P, 2000. "Bank Size, Bank Capital, and the Bank Lending Channel," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(1), pages 121-41, February.
  21. Andrew P. Meyer & Timothy J. Yeager, 2001. "Are small rural banks vulnerable to local economic downturns?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 25-38.
  22. Ben S. Bernanke & Cara S. Lown, 1991. "The Credit Crunch," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(2), pages 205-248.
  23. Lown, Cara & Peristiani, Stavros, 1996. "The behavior of consumer loan rates during the 1990 credit slowdown," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(10), pages 1673-1694, December.
  24. Skander J. Van den Heuvel, 2002. "Does bank capital matter for monetary transmission?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue May, pages 259-265.
  25. Craig Furfine, 2001. "Bank Portfolio Allocation: The Impact of Capital Requirements, Regulatory Monitoring, and Economic Conditions," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 33-56, September.
  26. repec:fth:bfdipa:6/2001 is not listed on IDEAS
  27. Kwiatkowski, D. & Phillips, P.C.B. & Schmidt, P., 1990. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of Unit Root : How Sure are we that Economic Time Series have a Unit Root?," Papers 8905, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
  28. Paolo Chiades & Leonardo Gambacorta, 2000. "La "credit view" in economia aperta: unÂ’applicazione al caso italiano," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 388, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  29. J.A. Bikker & H. Hu, 2003. "Cyclical Patterns in Profits, Provisioning and Lending of Banks," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 86, Netherlands Central Bank.
  30. Glenn Hoggarth & Steffen Sorensen & Lea Zicchino, 2005. "Stress tests of UK banks using a VAR approach," Bank of England working papers 282, Bank of England.
  31. Pesola, Jarmo, 2001. "The role of macroeconomic shocks in banking crises," Research Discussion Papers 6/2001, Bank of Finland.
  32. Mario Quagliariello, . "Banks' Performance over the Business Cycle: A Panel Analysis on Italian Intermediaries," Discussion Papers 04/17, Department of Economics, University of York.
  33. Robert R. Bliss & George G. Kaufman, 2002. "Bank procyclicality, credit crunches, and asymmetric monetary policy effects: a unifying model," Working Paper Series WP-02-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  34. Christopher A. Sims, 1986. "Are forecasting models usable for policy analysis?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 2-16.
  35. Darren Pain, 2003. "The provisioning experience of the major UK banks: a small panel investigation," Bank of England working papers 177, Bank of England.
  36. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:yor:yorken:05/09. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Paul Hodgson).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.