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Macroeconomic uncertainty and banks' lending decisions: the case of Italy

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  • Mario Quagliariello

Abstract

This article discusses the role that macroeconomic uncertainty plays in banks' decisions on the optimal asset allocation. Following the portfolio model proposed by Baum et al. (2005), the article aims at disentangling how Italian banks choose between loans and risk-free assets when uncertainty on macroeconomic conditions increases. The econometric results confirm that macroeconomic uncertainty is a significant determinant of banks' investment decisions, also after controlling for other factors. In periods of increasing turmoil, banks' ability to accurately forecast future returns is hindered and herding behaviour tends to emerge, as witnessed by the reduction of the cross-sectional variance of the share of loans held in portfolio.

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  • Mario Quagliariello, 2009. "Macroeconomic uncertainty and banks' lending decisions: the case of Italy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(3), pages 323-336.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:41:y:2009:i:3:p:323-336
    DOI: 10.1080/00036840601007286
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    Cited by:

    1. Marco Causi & Andrea Baldini, 2018. "Determinants Of Loan And Bad Loan Dynamics: Evidence From Italy," Departmental Working Papers of Economics - University 'Roma Tre' o232, Department of Economics - University Roma Tre.
    2. Wu, Ji & Yao, Yao & Chen, Minghua & Jeon, Bang Nam, 2020. "Economic uncertainty and bank risk: Evidence from emerging economies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    3. Caglayan, Mustafa & Xu, Bing, 2014. "Allocation effects of uncertainty on resources in Japan," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 23-26.
    4. Racicot, François-Éric & Théoret, Raymond, 2019. "Hedge fund return higher moments over the business cycle," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 73-97.
    5. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Lee, Chi-Chuan & Zeng, Jhih-Hong & Hsu, Yu-Ling, 2017. "Peer bank behavior, economic policy uncertainty, and leverage decision of financial institutions," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 79-91.
    6. Romila Qamar & Shahid Mansoor Hashmi & Mughees Tahir Bhalli, 2016. "Are Basel Capital Standards Implemented Successfully in Pakistan?," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 19(62), pages 119-152, December.
    7. Calmès, Christian & Théoret, Raymond, 2014. "Bank systemic risk and macroeconomic shocks: Canadian and U.S. evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 388-402.
    8. Racicot, François-Éric & Théoret, Raymond, 2018. "Multi-moment risk, hedging strategies, & the business cycle," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 637-675.
    9. Stefano Puddu, 2013. "Real Sector and Banking System: Real and Feedback Effects. A Non-Linear VAR Approach," IRENE Working Papers 13-01, IRENE Institute of Economic Research.
    10. Caglayan, Mustafa & Xu, Bing, 2016. "Sentiment volatility and bank lending behavior," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 107-120.
    11. Lorna Katusiime, 2018. "Private Sector Credit and Inflation Volatility," Economies, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-13, April.
    12. Talavera, Oleksandr & Tsapin, Andriy & Zholud, Oleksandr, 2012. "Macroeconomic uncertainty and bank lending: The case of Ukraine," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 279-293.
    13. Calmès, Christian & Théoret, Raymond, 2010. "The impact of off-balance-sheet activities on banks returns: An application of the ARCH-M to Canadian data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(7), pages 1719-1728, July.
    14. Christian Calmès & Raymond Théoret, 2008. "Banking Deregulation and Financial Stability : is it Time to re-regulate in Canada ?," RePAd Working Paper Series UQO-DSA-wp042008, Département des sciences administratives, UQO.
    15. Mohammed Amidu, 2014. "What Influences Banks Lending in Sub-Saharan Africa?," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 13(1), pages 1-42, April.
    16. Ekaterina Pirozhkova, 2017. "Bank loan components, uncertainty and monetary transmission mechanism," BCAM Working Papers 1702, Birkbeck Centre for Applied Macroeconomics.
    17. Christian Calmès & Raymond Théoret, 2012. "Bank systemic risk and the business cycle: Canadian and U.S. evidence," RePAd Working Paper Series UQO-DSA-wp022012, Département des sciences administratives, UQO.
    18. Caglayan, Mustafa & Xu, Bing, 2016. "Inflation volatility effects on the allocation of bank loans," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 27-39.
    19. Iwedi Marshal, 2017. "The Impact of Macroeconomic Dynamic on Bank Lending Behavior in Nigeria," Noble International Journal of Economics and Financial Research, Noble Academic Publsiher, vol. 2(10), pages 131-139, October.
    20. Nguyen, James, 2012. "The relationship between net interest margin and noninterest income using a system estimation approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 2429-2437.
    21. Christian Calmès & Raymond Théoret, 2011. "Bank systemic risk and the business cycle: An empirical investigation using Canadian data," RePAd Working Paper Series UQO-DSA-wp322011, Département des sciences administratives, UQO.
    22. Xie, Qiwei & Xu, Qifan & Chen, Lifan & Jin, Xi & Li, Siqi & Li, Yongjun, 2022. "Efficiency evaluation of China's listed commercial banks based on a multi-period leader-follower model," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    23. Christian Calmès & Raymond Théoret, 2009. "The Impact of Banking Deregulation on Canadian Banks Returns," RePAd Working Paper Series UQO-DSA-wp022009, Département des sciences administratives, UQO.
    24. Mustafa Caglayan & Bing Xu, 2013. "Allocation Effects of Uncertainty on Resources in Japan," CFI Discussion Papers 1306, Centre for Finance and Investment, Heriot Watt University.
    25. Racicot, François-Éric & Théoret, Raymond, 2016. "Macroeconomic shocks, forward-looking dynamics, and the behavior of hedge funds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 41-61.

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    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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