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The second moments matter: The response of bank lending behavior to macroeconomic uncertainty

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Author Info
Christopher F Baum
Mustafa Caglayan
Neslihan Ozkan

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Abstract

In this paper we investigate whether macroeconomic uncertainty could distort allocation of loanable funds. To provide a road--map for our empirical investigation, we present a simple framework which demonstrates that an increase in macroeconomic uncertainty will lead to more homogeneous behavior among banks. We test this prediction on a comprehensive U.S. commercial bank data set, and find that as macroeconomic uncertainty increases the cross--sectional dispersion of banks' loan--to--asset ratios narrows, supporting our basic hypothesis. Our results are broadly similar across total loans and three major categories of bank loans, and robust to the inclusion of macroeconomic factors

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Paper provided by Society for Computational Economics in its series Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 with number 172.

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Date of creation: 11 Aug 2004
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Handle: RePEc:sce:scecf4:172

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Related research
Keywords: bank lending; financial sector uncertainty; lending channel;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Capital and Ownership Structure
E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Christopher F. Baum & Mustafa Caglayan & Neslihan Ozkan, 2003. "The role of uncertainty in the transmission of monetary policy effects on bank lending," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 561, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 28 Apr 2008. [Downloadable!]
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    Other versions:
  3. Christopher F. Baum & Mustafa Caglayan & Neslihan Ozkan, 2004. "Re-examining the Transmission of Monetary Policy: What More Do a Million Observations Have to Say," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 45, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  4. Charles W. Calomiris & Charles P. Himmelberg & Paul Wachtel, 1994. "Commercial Paper, Corporate Finance, and the Business Cycle: A Microeconomic Perspective," NBER Working Papers 4848, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Anil K. Kashyap & Jeremy C. Stein, 2000. "What Do a Million Observations on Banks Say about the Transmission of Monetary Policy?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 407-428, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Baum, Christopher F. & Caglayan, Mustafa & Ozkan, Neslihan & Talavera, Oleksandr, 2006. "The impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on non-financial firms' demand for liquidity," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 289-304. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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  17. Kashyap, Anil K & Stein, Jeremy C & Wilcox, David W, 1993. "Monetary Policy and Credit Conditions: Evidence from the Composition of External Finance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(1), pages 78-98, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Caglayan, Mustafa & Usman, Murat, 2000. "Costly signal extraction and profit differentials in oligopolistic markets," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(3), pages 359-363, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  23. Baum, Christopher F. & Barkoulas, John T. & Caglayan, Mustafa, 1999. "Long memory or structural breaks: can either explain nonstationary real exchange rates under the current float?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 359-376, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  24. Berger, Allen N. & Udell, Gregory F., 2004. "The institutional memory hypothesis and the procyclicality of bank lending behavior," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 458-495, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  25. Goenka, Aditya, 2003. "Informed trading and the 'leakage' of information," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 109(2), pages 360-377, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  26. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1996. "The Financial Accelerator and the Flight to Quality," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 1-15, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  27. Evan Gatev & Philip E. Strahan, 2003. "Banks' Advantage in Hedging Liquidity Risk: Theory and Evidence from the Commercial Paper Market," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 03-01, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Christian Merkl & Stéphanie Stolz, 2006. "Banks’ Regulatory Buffers, Liquidity Networks and Monetary Policy Transmission," Kiel Working Papers 1303, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Mario Quagliariello, 2006. "Macroeconomics Uncertainty and Banks' Lending Decisions: The Case of Italy," Discussion Papers 06/02, Department of Economics, University of York. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Christian Calmès & Raymond Théoret, 2009. "The Impact of Banking Deregulation on Canadian Banks Returns," RePAd Working Paper Series UQO-DSA-wp022009, Département des sciences administratives, UQO. [Downloadable!]
  4. Christian Calmès & Raymond Théoret, 2008. "Banking Deregulation and Financial Stability : is it Time to re-regulate in Canada ?," RePAd Working Paper Series UQO-DSA-wp042008, Département des sciences administratives, UQO. [Downloadable!]
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