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The Role Of Uncertainty In The Transmission Of Monetary Policy Effects On Bank Lending

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  • CHRISTOPHER BAUM
  • MUSTAFA CAGLAYAN
  • NESLIHAN OZKAN

Abstract

In this paper we re-examine commercial banks' lending behavior taking into account changes in the stance of monetary policy in conjunction with changes in financial sector uncertainty. Using a very large data set covering all banks in the US between 1986-2000, we show that financial uncertainty has an important and significant role in the monetary policy transmission mechanism that varies across bank categories and the strength of banks' balance sheets. We find support for the existence of a bank lending channel among US banks.
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  • Christopher Baum & Mustafa Caglayan & Neslihan Ozkan, 2013. "The Role Of Uncertainty In The Transmission Of Monetary Policy Effects On Bank Lending," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 81(2), pages 202-225, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:manchs:v:81:y:2013:i:2:p:202-225
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/manc.2013.81.issue-2
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    Cited by:

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    2. Chuliá, Helena & Guillén, Montserrat & Uribe, Jorge M., 2017. "Measuring uncertainty in the stock market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 18-33.
    3. Mr. Fabian Valencia, 2013. "Aggregate Uncertainty and the Supply of Credit," IMF Working Papers 2013/241, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Alessandri, Piergiorgio & Bottero, Margherita, 2020. "Bank lending in uncertain times," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    5. Huang, Jia & Chen, Zheng, 2021. "Optimal risk asset allocation of a loss-averse bank with partial information under inflation risk," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    6. Talavera, Oleksandr & Tsapin, Andriy & Zholud, Oleksandr, 2012. "Macroeconomic uncertainty and bank lending: The case of Ukraine," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 279-293.
    7. Wu, Ji & Yan, Yuanyun & Chen, Minghua & Jeon, Bang Nam, 2022. "Monetary policy, economic uncertainty and bank risk: Cross-country evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    8. Xianming Fang & Yu Jiang, 2016. "Impact of the Joint-Stock Reform of Commercial Banks on the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy in China," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 63(3), pages 325-338, June.
    9. Sanket Mohapatra & Siddharth M. Purohit, 2021. "The implications of economic uncertainty for bank loan portfolios," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(45), pages 5242-5266, September.
    10. Burkhard Raunig & Johann Scharler & Friedrich Sindermann, 2017. "Do Banks Lend Less in Uncertain Times?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 84(336), pages 682-711, October.
    11. Christopher F Baum & Mustafa Caglayan & Neslihan Ozkan, 2004. "The second moments matter: The response of bank lending behavior to macroeconomic uncertainty," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 172, Society for Computational Economics.
    12. Brissimis, Sophocles N. & Delis, Manthos D., 2009. "Identification of a loan supply function: A cross-country test for the existence of a bank lending channel," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 321-335, April.
    13. Gandjar Mustika & Enny Suryatinc & Maximilian Hall & Richard Simper, 2015. "Did Bank Indonesia cause the credit crunch of 2006–2008?," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 269-298, February.
    14. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Olasehinde-Williams, Godwin, 2020. "Insurance and economic policy uncertainty," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    15. Valencia, Fabián, 2017. "Aggregate uncertainty and the supply of credit," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 150-165.
    16. Rosen Azad Chowdhury & Dilshad Jahan & Tapas Mishra & Mamata Parhi, 2024. "Monetary policy shock and impact asymmetry in bank lending channel: Evidence from the UK housing sector," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1), pages 511-530, January.
    17. Mustafa Caglayan & Kostas Mouratidis & Elham Saeidinezhad, 2011. "Monetary policy effects on output and exchange rates: Results from US, UK and Japan," Working Papers 2011016, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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