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Macroeconomic uncertainty and bank lending: The case of Ukraine

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  • Talavera, Oleksandr
  • Tsapin, Andriy
  • Zholud, Oleksandr

Abstract

This study investigates the link between bank lending behavior and country-level instability. Our dynamic model of bank's profit maximization predicts a non-monotonic relationship between bank lending and macroeconomic uncertainty. We test this proposition using a panel of Ukrainian banks over the 2003Q2–2008Q2 period. The estimates indicate that banks decrease their lending ratio in times of substantial economic volatility, which could be explained by higher risk aversion of bank managers. Additionally, small and least profitable banks are less likely to be affected by changes in the macroeconomic environment compared to their large and most profitable peers. This outcome is robust with respect to the different measurements of macroeconomic uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Talavera, Oleksandr & Tsapin, Andriy & Zholud, Oleksandr, 2012. "Macroeconomic uncertainty and bank lending: The case of Ukraine," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 279-293.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecosys:v:36:y:2012:i:2:p:279-293
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2011.06.005
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Banks; Macroeconomic uncertainty; Ukraine; Banks’ balance sheets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • P34 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions - - - Finance

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