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The Effects of Uncertainty on the Leverage of Non-Financial Firms

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Author Info
Christopher F. Baum () (Boston College, DIW Berlin)
Andreas Stephan (Europa-Universitat Viadrina, DIW Berlin)
Oleksandr Talavera () (DIW Berlin)

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Abstract

This paper investigates the link between the optimal level of nonfinancial firms' leverage and macroeconomic uncertainty. We develop a structural model of a firm's value maximization problem that predicts that as macroeconomic uncertainty increases the firm will decrease its optimal level of borrowing. We test this proposition using a panel of non-financial US firms drawn from the COMPUSTAT quarterly database covering the period 1991-2001. The estimates confirm that as macroeconomic uncertainty increases, firms decrease their levels of leverage. Furthermore, we demonstrate that our results are robust with respect to the inclusion of the index of leading indicators.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Boston College Department of Economics in its series Boston College Working Papers in Economics with number 602.

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Length: 23 pages
Date of creation: 15 Sep 2004
Date of revision: 27 Jul 2007
Publication status: published, Economic Inquiry, 47 (2009), 216-225
Handle: RePEc:boc:bocoec:602

Note: formerly circulated as "Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Firm Leverage"
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Related research
Keywords: leverage; uncertainty; non-financial firms; panel data;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data
D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
D92 - Microeconomics - - Intertemporal Choice and Growth - - - Intertemporal Firm Choice and Growth, Investment, or Financing
G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Capital and Ownership Structure

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Alan J. Auerbach, 1985. "Real Determinants of Corporate Leverage," NBER Working Papers 1151, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Nicholas Bloom & Steve Bond & John Van Reenen, 2001. "The dynamics of investment under uncertainty," IFS Working Papers W01/05, Institute for Fiscal Studies. [Downloadable!]
  4. Christopher F Baum & Mustafa Caglayan & Neslihan Ozkan, 2003. "The Impact of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Cash Holdings for Non-Financial Firms," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 69, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Inessa Love, 2003. "Financial Development and Financing Constraints: International Evidence from the Structural Investment Model," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(3), pages 765-791, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Geoffrey Shuetrim & Philip Lowe & Steve Morling, 1993. "The Determinants of Corporate Leverage: A Panel Data Analysis," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9313, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
  7. Steven Fazzari & R. Glenn Hubbard & Bruce C. Petersen, 1988. "Financing Constraints and Corporate Investment," NBER Working Papers 2387, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. R. Glenn Hubbard & Anil K Kashyap & Toni M. Whited, 1995. "Internal Finance and Firm Investment," NBER Working Papers 4392, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Heitor Almeida & Murillo Campello & Michael S. Weisbach, 2004. "The Cash Flow Sensitivity of Cash," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(4), pages 1777-1804, 08. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Joseph P. Byrne & E. Philip Davis, 2005. "Investment and Uncertainty in the G7," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 141(1), pages 1-32, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Christopher F. Baum & Atreya Chakraborty & Boyan Liu, 2008. "The Impact of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Firms' Changes in Financial Leverage," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 688, Boston College Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Christopher F Baum & Mustafa Caglayan & Oleksandr Talavera, 2009. "Corporate Liquidity Management and Future Investment Expenditures," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 712, Boston College Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-24.

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