Profitability, capacity, and uncertainty: a model of UK manufacturing investment
AbstractStandard models fail to explain variation in UK capital investment. This paper develops and tests a new theory based on the insights of Edmond Malinvaud, in which investment under uncertainty is adjusted to balance the cost of excess and deficient capacity. Using quarterly UK manufacturing data on two capital assets (machinery and building) over a 30-year period, we obtain unique cointegrating relationships for the model, linking investment, profitability and capacity utilization. Non-nested testing shows that the estimated model performs similarly to a frequently used survey of investment intentions. Our model also addresses differences in the behaviour of the two asset classes; we show that building investment fell relative to machinery investment over the period, reflecting not only relative prices and profitability, but also long term influences such as technology or governance. At the macro level we find little role for any effects from taxation or financial constraints. Copyright 2005, Oxford University Press.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Oxford University Press in its journal Oxford Economic Papers.
Volume (Year): 57 (2005)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Oxford University Press, Great Clarendon Street, Oxford OX2 6DP, UK
Fax: 01865 267 985
Web page: http://oep.oupjournals.org/
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Vivek Ghosal & Yang Ye, 2013. "Business Decision-Making under Uncertainty: Evidence from Employment and Number of Businesses," CESifo Working Paper Series 4312, CESifo Group Munich.
- Driver, Ciaran & Guedes, Maria João Coelho, 2012. "Research and development, cash flow, agency and governance: UK large companies," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(9), pages 1565-1577.
- Christopher F. Baum & Dorothea Schäfer & Oleksandr Talavera, 2006.
"The Effects of Industry-Level Uncertainty on Cash Holdings: The Case of Germany,"
Boston College Working Papers in Economics
637, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 05 Aug 2006.
- Christopher F. Baum & Dorothea Schäfer & Oleksandr Talavera, 2006. "The Effects of Industry-Level Uncertainty on Cash Holdings: The Case of Germany," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 638, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Christopher F. Baum & Atreya Chakraborty & Liyan Han & Boyan Liu, 2012.
"The effects of uncertainty and corporate governance on firms’ demand for liquidity,"
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(4), pages 515-525, February.
- Christopher F. Baum & Atreya Chakraborty & Liyan Han & Boyan Liu, 2009. "The Effects of Uncertainty and Corporate Governance on Firms' Demand for Liquidity," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 726, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Oleksandr Talavera & Christopher Baum & Mustafa Caglayan & Andreas Stephan, 2005.
"Uncertainty Determinants of Corporate Liquidity,"
Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005
73, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
- Christopher F. Baum & Mustafa Caglayan & Andreas Stephan & Oleksandr Talavera, 2006. "Uncertainty Determinants of Corporate Liquidity," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 633, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Christopher F. Baum & Mustafa Caglayan & Andreas Stephan & Oleksandr Talavera, 2005. "Uncertainty Determinants of Corporate Liquidity," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 634, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 09 Oct 2006.
- Christopher F. Baum & Mustafa Caglayan & Andreas Stephan & Oleksandr Talavera, 2006. "Uncertainty Determinants of Corporate Liquidity," Working Papers 2006_1, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
- Christopher F. Baum & Atreya Chakraborty & Boyan Liu, 2008.
"The Impact of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Firms' Changes in Financial Leverage,"
Boston College Working Papers in Economics
688, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Christopher F. Baum & Atreya Chakraborty & Boyan Liu, 2010. "The impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on firms' changes in financial leverage," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 22-30.
- Oleksandr Talavera & Andriy Tsapin & Oleksandr Zholud, 2006.
"Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Bank Lending: The Case of Ukraine,"
Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin
637, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Talavera, Oleksandr & Tsapin, Andriy & Zholud, Oleksandr, 2012. "Macroeconomic uncertainty and bank lending: The case of Ukraine," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 279-293.
- Demir, Firat & Caglayan, Mustafa, 2012. "Firm Productivity, Exchange Rate Movements, Sources of Finance and Export Orientation," MPRA Paper 37397, University Library of Munich, Germany.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Oxford University Press) or (Christopher F. Baum).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.