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The Effects Of Uncertainty On The Leverage Of Nonfinancial Firms

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  • CHRISTOPHER F. BAUM
  • ANDREAS STEPHAN
  • OLEKSANDR TALAVERA

Abstract

"This paper investigates the link between the optimal level of nonfinancial firms' short-term leverage and macroeconomic and idiosyncratic sources of uncertainty. We develop a structural model of a firm's value maximization problem that predicts a negative relationship between uncertainty and optimal levels of borrowing. This proposition is tested using a panel of nonfinancial U.S. firms drawn from the COMPUSTAT quarterly database covering the period 1993-2003. The estimates confirm that as either form of uncertainty increases, firms decrease their levels of short-term leverage. This effect is stronger for macroeconomic uncertainty than for idiosyncratic uncertainty. " Copyright (c) 2008 Western Economic Association International.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Western Economic Association International in its journal Economic Inquiry.

Volume (Year): 47 (2009)
Issue (Month): 2 (04)
Pages: 216-225

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Handle: RePEc:bla:ecinqu:v:47:y:2009:i:2:p:216-225

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References

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  1. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April.
  2. Nicholas Bloom & Steve Bond & John Van Reenen, 2001. "The dynamics of investment under uncertainty," IFS Working Papers W01/05, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  3. Inessa Love, 2003. "Financial Development and Financing Constraints: International Evidence from the Structural Investment Model," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(3), pages 765-791, July.
  4. Steven Fazzari & R. Glenn Hubbard & Bruce C. Petersen, 1988. "Financing Constraints and Corporate Investment," NBER Working Papers 2387, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Alan J. Auerbach, 1985. "Real Determinants of Corporate Leverage," NBER Chapters, in: Corporate Capital Structures in the United States, pages 301-324 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Joseph P. Byrne & E. Philip Davis, 2002. "Investment and Uncertainty in the G7," NIESR Discussion Papers 198, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
  7. Christopher F. Baum & Mustafa Caglayan & Neslihan Ozkan & Oleksandr Talavera, 2004. "The Impact of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Cash Holdings for Non–Financial Firms," Discussion Papers in Economics 04/19, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
  8. R. Glenn Hubbard & Anil K Kashyap & Toni M. Whited, 1995. "Internal Finance and Firm Investment," NBER Working Papers 4392, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Vivek Ghosal & Prakash Loungani, 2000. "The Differential Impact of Uncertainty on Investment in Small and Large Businesses," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 338-343, May.
  10. Heitor Almeida & Murillo Campello & Michael S. Weisbach, 2004. "The Cash Flow Sensitivity of Cash," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(4), pages 1777-1804, 08.
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Cited by:
  1. Christopher F. Baum & Atreya Chakraborty & Boyan Liu, 2008. "The Impact of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Firms' Changes in Financial Leverage," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 688, Boston College Department of Economics.
  2. Christopher F Baum & Mustafa Caglayan & Oleksandr Talavera, 2009. "The Effects of Future Capital Investment and R&D Expenditures on Firms' Liquidity," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 712, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 23 Jul 2012.
  3. Abdul Rashid, 2011. "How does private firms' investment respond to uncertainty?: Some evidence from the United Kingdom," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 11(4), pages 339-347, August.

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