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Investment and Uncertainty in the G7

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Author Info
Joseph P. Byrne ()
E. Philip Davis ()

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Abstract

In this paper we assess the impact of a comprehensive range of macroeconomic and financial measures of uncertainty on business investment in the major industrial countries using Pooled Mean Group Panel Estimation. We discover a significant negative long run effect from both nominal and real exchange rate volatility using a GARCH (1,1) approach on aggregate investment for the G7. This is also found in poolable subgroups including all four larger European countries. Results for an adverse impact of uncertainty on investment are also found for volatility of long rates in recent years but not for inflation, share prices and industrial production. The results imply that to the extent that EMU favours lower exchange rate and long interest rate volatility, it will also be beneficial to investment.

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Paper provided by National Institute of Economic and Social Research in its series NIESR Discussion Papers with number 198.

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Date of creation: Jul 2002
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Handle: RePEc:nsr:niesrd:198

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  2. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995. "Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-113, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Kenen, Peter B & Rodrik, Dani, 1986. "Measuring and Analyzing the Effects of Short-term Volatility in Real Exchange Rates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 68(2), pages 311-15, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Julia Darby & Andrew Hughes Hallett & Jonathan Ireland & Laura Piscitelli, . "The Impact of Exchange Rate Uncertainty on the Level of Investment," ICMM Discussion Papers 49, Department of Economics University of Strathclyde.
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  5. Driver, Ciaran & Yip, Paul & Dakhil, Nazera, 1996. "Large Company Capital Formation and Effects of Market Share Turbulence: Micro-data Evidence from the PIMS Database," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 28(6), pages 641-51, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Abel, Andrew B, 1983. "Optimal Investment under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 228-33, March.
  7. Russell Cooper & Joao Ejarque, 2001. "Exhuming Q: market power capital market imperfections," Working Papers 611, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
  8. Ferderer, J Peter, 1993. "The Impact of Uncertainty on Aggregate Investment Spending: An Empirical Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(1), pages 30-48, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Carruth, Alan & Dickerson, Andrew & Henley, Andrew, 2000. " What Do We Know about Investment under Uncertainty?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 14(2), pages 119-53, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Jaewoo Lee & Kwanho Shin, 2000. "The Role of a Variable Input in the Relationship between Investment and Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 667-680, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Jones, Charles I, 1995. "Time Series Tests of Endogenous Growth Models," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(2), pages 495-525, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Joao Ejarque & Russell Cooper, 2000. "Exhuming Q: Market Power Versus Capital Market Imperfections," Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 316, Society for Computational Economics.
  15. Price, Simon, 1995. "Aggregate Uncertainty, Capacity Utilization and Manufacturing Investment," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 27(2), pages 147-54, February.
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Andreas Stephan & Oleksandr Talavera, . "Effects of macroeconomic uncertainty on leverage for US non-financial firms," German Stata Users' Group Meetings 2004 8, Stata Users Group. [Downloadable!]
  2. Christopher F. Baum & Andreas Stephan & Oleksandr Talavera, 2004. "The Effects of Uncertainty on the Leverage of Non-Financial Firms," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 602, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 27 Jul 2007. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Carlo Cottarelli & Julio Escolano, 2004. "Assessing the Assessment: A Critical Look at the June 2003 Assessment of the United Kingdom's Five Tests for Euro Entry," IMF Working Papers 04/116, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  4. Christopher F. Baum & Dorothea Schäfer & Oleksandr Talavera, 2006. "The Effects of Industry-Level Uncertainty on Cash Holdings : The Case of Germany," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 638, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Mandler, Martin, 2007. "The Taylor rule and interest rate uncertainty in the U.S. 1955-2006," MPRA Paper 2340, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  6. Oleksandr Talavera & Andriy Tsapin & Oleksandr Zholud, 2006. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Bank Lending : The Case of Ukraine," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 637, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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