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Investment Under Monetary Uncertainty: A Panel Data Investigation

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  • Andrew Hallett
  • Gert Peersman
  • Laura Piscitelli

Abstract

There is a presumption in the literature that price or exchange rate uncertainty, or uncertainty in the monetary conditions underlying them, will have a negative effect on investment. Some argue that this negative effect will be extended by imperfect competition. However, models of “irreversible” investment show that the situation is more complicated than that. In these models, investment expenditures are affected by the scrapping price available on world markets and also by the opportunity cost of waiting rather than investing. The impact of uncertainty is therefore going to depend on the type of industry and hence on the industrial structure of the economy concerned. In addition, it may depend on the persistence of any price “misalignments” away from competitive equilibrium. In this paper, we put these theoretical predictions to the test. We estimate investment equations for 13 different industries using data for nine OECD countries over the period 1970–2000. We find that the impact of price uncertainty is negative or insignificant in all but one case whereas the impact of (nominal) exchange rate uncertainty is negative in only six cases, positive in four cases, and insignificant in three others. In addition, there are conflicting effects from the real exchange rate. The net effect depends on whether the source of the uncertainty is in domestic markets or in foreign markets. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 2004

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Empirica.

Volume (Year): 31 (2004)
Issue (Month): 2 (June)
Pages: 137-162

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Handle: RePEc:kap:empiri:v:31:y:2004:i:2:p:137-162

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Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=100261

Related research

Keywords: Investment expenditures; price and exchange rate uncertainty; PMGE estimators;

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References

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  1. Pindyck, Robert S., 1986. "Irreversible investment, capacity choice, and the value of the firm," Working papers 1802-86., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
  2. Dixit, Avinash K, 1989. "Entry and Exit Decisions under Uncertainty," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 620-38, June.
  3. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2002. "A theory of the currency denomination of international trade," International Finance Discussion Papers 747, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  4. Darby, Julia, et al, 1999. "The Impact of Exchange Rate Uncertainty on the Level of Investment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(454), pages C55-67, March.
  5. Carruth, Alan & Dickerson, Andrew & Henley, Andrew, 2000. " What Do We Know about Investment under Uncertainty?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(2), pages 119-53, April.
  6. Professor E. Philip Davis, 2002. "Investment and Uncertainty in the G7," NIESR Discussion Papers 144, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
  7. Laura Piscitelli & Andrew Hughes Hallett & Gert Peersman, 2004. "Investment Under Monetary Uncertainty: A Panel Data Investigation," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2004 21, Royal Economic Society.
  8. Pesaran, M. H. & Zhao, Z., 1998. "Bias Reduction in Estimating Long-run Relationships from Dynamic Heterogenous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9802, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  9. M Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Ron P Smith, 2004. "Pooled mean group estimation of dynamic heterogeneous panels," ESE Discussion Papers 16, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
  10. Julia Darby & Andrew Hughes Hallett & Jonathan Ireland & Laura Piscitelli, 2000. "Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Business Sector Investment," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0600, Econometric Society.
  11. Hsiao, C. & Pesaran, M. H. & Tahmiscioglu, A. K., 1998. "Bayes Estimation of Short-run Coefficients in Dynamic Panel Data Models," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9804, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  12. n/a, 1999. "An Artificial Neural Network System of Leading Indicators," NIESR Discussion Papers 198, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
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Cited by:
  1. Michael McMahon & Gabriel Sterne & Jamie Thompson, 2005. "The role of ICT in the global investment cycle," Bank of England working papers 257, Bank of England.
  2. Andrew Hallett & Gert Peersman & Laura Piscitelli, 2004. "Investment Under Monetary Uncertainty: A Panel Data Investigation," Empirica, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 137-162, June.
  3. Landon, Stuart & Smith, Constance, 2007. "Investment and the exchange rate: Short run and long run aggregate and sector-level estimates," MPRA Paper 9958, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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