Investment under uncertainty: Testing the options model with professional traders
AbstractAn important class of investment decisions is characterized by unrecoverable sunk costs, resolution of uncertainty through time, and the ability to invest in the future as an alternative to investing today. The options model provides guidance in such settings, including an investment decision rule called the “bad news principle”: the downside investment state influences the investment decision whereas the upside investment state is ignored. This study takes a new approach to examining predictions of the options model by using the tools of experimental economics. Our evidence, which is drawn from student and professional trader subject pools, is broadly consonant with the options model.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by The Field Experiments Website in its series Artefactual Field Experiments with number 00053.
Date of creation: 2010
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.fieldexperiments.com
Other versions of this item:
- John A. List & Michael S. Haigh, 2010. "Investment Under Uncertainty: Testing the Options Model with Professional Traders," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(4), pages 974-984, November.
- John A. List & Michael S. Haigh, 2010. "Investment under Uncertainty: Testing the Options Model with Professional Traders," NBER Working Papers 16038, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- C9 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments
- C93 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Field Experiments
- D01 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Microeconomic Behavior: Underlying Principles
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Michael S. Haigh & John A. List, 2005.
"Do Professional Traders Exhibit Myopic Loss Aversion? An Experimental Analysis,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 60(1), pages 523-534, 02.
- Michael Haigh & John List, 2005. "Do professional traders exhibit myopic loss aversion? An experimental analysis," Artefactual Field Experiments 00052, The Field Experiments Website.
- Haigh, Michael S. & List, John A., 2002. "Do Professional Traders Exhibit Myopic Loss Aversion? An Experimental Analysis," Working Papers 28554, University of Maryland, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
- John A. List, 2003.
"Neoclassical Theory Versus Prospect Theory: Evidence from the Marketplace,"
NBER Working Papers
9736, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- John A. List, 2004. "Neoclassical Theory Versus Prospect Theory: Evidence from the Marketplace," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(2), pages 615-625, 03.
- John List, 2004. "Neoclassical theory versus prospect theory: Evidence from the marketplace," Framed Field Experiments 00174, The Field Experiments Website.
- Gneezy, U. & Potters, J.J.M., 1997.
"An experiment on risk taking and evaluation periods,"
Open Access publications from Tilburg University
urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-73908, Tilburg University.
- Gneezy, Uri & Potters, Jan, 1997. "An Experiment on Risk Taking and Evaluation Periods," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 112(2), pages 631-45, May.
- Gneezy, U. & Potters, J.J.M., 1996. "An experiment on risk taking and evaluation periods," Discussion Paper 1996-61, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Locke, Peter R. & Mann, Steven C., 2005. "Professional trader discipline and trade disposition," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 401-444, May.
- John A. List, 2006.
"Using Hicksian Surplus Measures to Examine Consistency of Individual Preferences: Evidence from a Field Experiment,"
Scandinavian Journal of Economics,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 108(1), pages 115-134, 03.
- John List, 2006. "Using hicksian surplus measures to examine consistency of individual preferences: Evidence from a field experiment," Framed Field Experiments 00177, The Field Experiments Website.
- Robert E. Lucas & Jr., 1967. "Adjustment Costs and the Theory of Supply," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75, pages 321.
- Fahr, René & Janssen, Elmar & Sureth, Caren, 2014. "Can tax rate increases foster investment under entry and exit flexibility? Insights from an economic experiment," arqus Discussion Papers in Quantitative Tax Research 166, arqus - Arbeitskreis Quantitative Steuerlehre.
- Ryan Kellogg, 2010.
"The Effect of Uncertainty on Investment: Evidence from Texas Oil Drilling,"
NBER Working Papers
16541, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ryan Kellogg, 2014. "The Effect of Uncertainty on Investment: Evidence from Texas Oil Drilling," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(6), pages 1698-1734, June.
- Gong, Binglin & Lei, Vivian & Pan, Deng, 2013. "Before and after: The impact of a real bubble crash on investors’ trading behavior in the lab," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 186-196.
- Pütz, Alexander & Ruenzi, Stefan, 2010. "Overconfidence among professional investors: Evidence from mutual fund managers," CFR Working Papers 08-08 [rev.], University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
- Omar Al-Ubaydli & Peter Boettke, 2011.
"Markets as Economizers of Information: Field Experimental Examination of the "Hayek Hypothesis","
1025, George Mason University, Interdisciplinary Center for Economic Science.
- Omar Al-Ubaydli & Peter Boettke, 2012. "Markets as economizers of information: Field experimental examination of the 'hayek hypothesis'," Framed Field Experiments 00195, The Field Experiments Website.
- Al-Ubaydli, Omar & Boettke, Peter, 2010. "Markets as economizers of information: Field experimental examination of the “Hayek Hypothesis”," MPRA Paper 27660, University Library of Munich, Germany.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joe Seidel).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.