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The second moments matter: The response of bank lending behaviour to macroeconomic uncertainty

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Author Info
Christopher F Baum
Mustafa Caglayan
Neslihan Ozkan

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Abstract

This paper investigates whether variations in macroeconomic uncertainty distort banks' allocation of loanable funds by affecting the predictability of banks' returns from lending. Low levels of macroeconomic uncertainty will allow bankers to base their lending decisions on more accurate evaluations of different lending opportunities, leading to a more unequal distribution of lending across banks. Contrarily, increased macroeconomic uncertainty will hinder bankers ability to identify and channel funds towards the best opportunities, including more similar lending behaviour across banks. Our empirical analysis provides support for the hypothesis that macroeconomic uncertainty adversely affects the efficient allocation of loanable banks.

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Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Glasgow in its series Working Papers with number 2005_27.

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Date of creation: Dec 2005
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Handle: RePEc:gla:glaewp:2005_27

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data
D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

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  3. Christopher F. Baum & Mustafa Caglayan & Neslihan Ozkan, 2004. "Re-examining the Transmission of Monetary Policy: What More Do a Million Observations Have to Say," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 45, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Baum, Christopher F. & Caglayan, Mustafa & Ozkan, Neslihan & Talavera, Oleksandr, 2006. "The impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on non-financial firms' demand for liquidity," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 289-304. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  24. Baum, Christopher F. & Barkoulas, John T. & Caglayan, Mustafa, 1999. "Long memory or structural breaks: can either explain nonstationary real exchange rates under the current float?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 359-376, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  26. Goenka, Aditya, 2003. "Informed trading and the 'leakage' of information," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 109(2), pages 360-377, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  28. Evan Gatev & Philip E. Strahan, 2003. "Banks' Advantage in Hedging Liquidity Risk: Theory and Evidence from the Commercial Paper Market," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 03-01, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Christian Calmès & Raymond Théoret, 2009. "The Impact of Off-Balance-Sheet Activities on Banks Returns: An Application of the ARCH-M to Canadian Data," RePAd Working Paper Series UQO-DSA-wp032009, Département des sciences administratives, UQO. [Downloadable!]
  2. Christian Calmès & Raymond Théoret, 2009. "The Impact of Banking Deregulation on Canadian Banks Returns," RePAd Working Paper Series UQO-DSA-wp022009, Département des sciences administratives, UQO. [Downloadable!]
  3. Christian Calmès & Raymond Théoret, 2008. "Banking Deregulation and Financial Stability : is it Time to re-regulate in Canada ?," RePAd Working Paper Series UQO-DSA-wp042008, Département des sciences administratives, UQO. [Downloadable!]
  4. Merkl, Christian & Stolz, Stéphanie, 2006. "Banks' regulatory buffers, liquidity networks and monetary policy transmission," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2006,06, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Mario Quagliariello, 2006. "Macroeconomics Uncertainty and Banks' Lending Decisions: The Case of Italy," Discussion Papers 06/02, Department of Economics, University of York. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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