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Long memory or structural breaks: Can either explain nonstationary real exchange rates under the current float?

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Author Info
Christopher F. Baum () (Boston College)
John T. Barkoulas (Louisiana Tech University)
Mustafa Caglayan (Koc University)

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Abstract

This paper considers two potential rationales for the apparent absence of mean reversion in real exchange rates in the post-Bretton Woods era. We allow for (i) fractional integration and (ii) a double mean shift in the real exchange rate process. These methods, applied to CPI-based rates for 17 countries and WPI-based rates for 12 countries, demonstrate that the unit-root hypothesis is robust against both fractional alternatives and structural breaks. This evidence suggests rejection of the doctrine of absolute long-run purchasing power parity during the post-Bretton Woods era.

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File URL: http://fmwww.bc.edu/EC-P/WP380.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Boston College Department of Economics in its series Boston College Working Papers in Economics with number 380.

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Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: 01 Feb 1998
Date of revision:
Publication status: published, Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions, and Money, 1999, 9, 359-376.
Handle: RePEc:boc:bocoec:380

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Postal: Boston College, 140 Commonwealth Avenue, Chestnut Hill MA 02467 USA
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Related research
Keywords: purchasing power parity; long memory; structural breaks;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Sowell, Fallaw, 1992. "Maximum likelihood estimation of stationary univariate fractionally integrated time series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 165-188. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Oh, Keun-Yeob, 1996. "Purchasing power parity and unit root tests using panel data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 405-418, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Perron, Pierre & Vogelsang, Timothy J, 1992. "Nonstationarity and Level Shifts with an Application to Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 301-20, July.
    Other versions:
  5. Perron, Pierre, 1990. "Testing for a Unit Root in a Time Series with a Changing Mean," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(2), pages 153-62, April.
    Other versions:
  6. Perron, Pierre, 1997. "Further evidence on breaking trend functions in macroeconomic variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 355-385, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Antonio E. Noriega & Lorena Medina, 2003. "Quasi purchasing power parity: Structural change in the Mexican peso/us dollar real exchange rate," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 18(2), pages 227-236. [Downloadable!]
  2. Salah Nusair, 2004. "Testing for PPP in developing countries using confirmatory analysis and different base countries: an application to Asian countries," International Economic Journal, Korean International Economic Association, vol. 18(4), pages 467-489, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Aaron Smallwood, 2004. "Joint Tests for Long Memory and Non-linearity: The Case of Purchasing Power Parity," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 23, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  4. Dimitrios Sideris, 2004. "Testing for Long-Run PPP in a System Context: Evidence for the US, Germany and Japan," Working Papers 19, Bank of Greece. [Downloadable!]
  5. Tatsuyoshi Okimoto & Katsumi Shimotsu, 2007. "Financial Market Integration and World Economic Stabilization toward Purchasing Power Parity," Working Papers 1138, Queen's University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  6. Yihui Lan, 2001. "The Explosion of Purchasing Power Parity," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 01-22, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  7. Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2004. "The dynamics of the real exchange rates in Europe: a comparative study across countries using fractional integration," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 11(7), pages 429-432, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Venus Khim-Sen Liew, 2003. "The Validity of PPP Revisited: An Application of Non-linear Unit Root Test," International Finance 0308001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  9. Francis W. Ahking, 2004. "Non-Parametric Tests of Real Exchange rates in the Post-Bretton Woods Era," Working papers 2004-05, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  10. Christopher F Baum & Mustafa Caglayan & Neslihan Ozkan, 2005. "The second moments matter: The response of bank lending behaviour to macroeconomic uncertainty," Working Papers 2005_27, Department of Economics, University of Glasgow. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Francis W. Ahking, 2002. "Efficient Unit Root Tests of real Exchange Rates in the Post-Bretton Woods Era," Working papers 2002-17, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Christopher F. Baum, 2004. "Topics in time series regression modeling," United Kingdom Stata Users' Group Meetings 2004 7, Stata Users Group, revised 26 Jul 2004. [Downloadable!]
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