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Banks� Riskiness Over the Business Cicle: a Panel Analysis on Italian Intermediaries

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  • Mario Quagliariello

    (Banca d'Italia)

Abstract

Supervisors and policy makers pay increasing attention to the possible procyclical nature of banks� behaviour. Indeed, to guarantee macro and financial stability, it is important to understand whether, and to what extent, banks are affected by the macroeconomy and second round effects occur. This paper provides a comprehensive investigation of these issues using a large dataset of Italian intermediaries over the period 1985-2002. In particular, estimating both static and dynamic models, it investigates whether loan loss provisions and non-performing loans show a cyclical pattern. The estimated relations may be employed to carry out stress tests to assess the effects of macroeconomic shocks on banks� balance sheets.

Suggested Citation

  • Mario Quagliariello, 2006. "Banks� Riskiness Over the Business Cicle: a Panel Analysis on Italian Intermediaries," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 599, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_599_06
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    Cited by:

    1. Marco Causi & Andrea Baldini, 2018. "Determinants Of Loan And Bad Loan Dynamics: Evidence From Italy," Departmental Working Papers of Economics - University 'Roma Tre' o232, Department of Economics - University Roma Tre.
    2. Angelo Zago & Paola Dongili, 2011. "Credit quality and technical efficiency in banking," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 40(2), pages 537-558, April.
    3. Mario Quagliariello, 2009. "Macroeconomic uncertainty and banks' lending decisions: the case of Italy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(3), pages 323-336.
    4. Emanuel Kohlscheen & Andrés Murcia Pabón & Juan Contreras, 2018. "Determinants of bank profitability in emerging markets," BIS Working Papers 686, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Albertazzi, Ugo & Gambacorta, Leonardo, 2009. "Bank profitability and the business cycle," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 393-409, December.
    6. Carlo Brambilla & Giandomenico Piluso, 2007. "Are Banks Procyclical? Evidence from the Italian Case (1890-1973)," Department of Economics University of Siena 523, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    7. Vasilis Siakoulis, 2017. "Fiscal policy effects on non-performing loan formation," Working Papers 224, Bank of Greece.
    8. Giandomenico Piluso & Roberto Ricciuti, 2008. "Fiscal Policy and the Banking System in Italy. Have Taxes, Public Spending and Banks been Procyclical in the Long-Run?," CESifo Working Paper Series 2442, CESifo.
    9. Stefan Hlawatsch & Sebastian Ostrowski, 2009. "Economic Loan Loss Provision and Expected Loss," FEMM Working Papers 09013, Otto-von-Guericke University Magdeburg, Faculty of Economics and Management.
    10. Anastasiou, Dimitrios, 2017. "Is ex-post credit risk affected by the cycles? The case of Italian banks," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 242-248.
    11. Anastasiou, Dimitrios, 2017. "The Interplay between Ex-post Credit Risk and the Cycles: Evidence from the Italian banks," MPRA Paper 79470, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    procyclicality; banks; loan loss provisions; non-performing loans; business cycle;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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