Supervisors and policy makers pay increasing attention to the possible procyclical nature of banksÂ’ behaviour. Indeed, to guarantee macro and financial stability, it is important to understand whether, and to what extent, banks are affected by the macroeconomy and second round effects occur. This paper provides a comprehensive investigation of these issues using a large dataset of Italian intermediaries over the period 1985-2002. In particular, estimating both static and dynamic models, it investigates whether loan loss provisions and non-performing loans show a cyclical pattern. The estimated relations may be employed to carry out stress tests to assess the effects of macroeconomic shocks on banksÂ’ balance sheets.
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Find related papers by JEL classification: E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data) E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
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