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BanksÂ’ Riskiness Over the Business Cicle: a Panel Analysis on Italian Intermediaries

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Author Info
Mario Quagliariello () (Banca d'Italia)

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Abstract

Supervisors and policy makers pay increasing attention to the possible procyclical nature of banksÂ’ behaviour. Indeed, to guarantee macro and financial stability, it is important to understand whether, and to what extent, banks are affected by the macroeconomy and second round effects occur. This paper provides a comprehensive investigation of these issues using a large dataset of Italian intermediaries over the period 1985-2002. In particular, estimating both static and dynamic models, it investigates whether loan loss provisions and non-performing loans show a cyclical pattern. The estimated relations may be employed to carry out stress tests to assess the effects of macroeconomic shocks on banksÂ’ balance sheets.

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Paper provided by Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department in its series Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) with number 599.

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Date of creation: Sep 2006
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Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_599_06

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Postal: Via Nazionale, 91 - 00184 Roma
Web page: http://www.bancaditalia.it
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Related research
Keywords: procyclicality; banks; loan loss provisions; non-performing loans; business cycle;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  3. Ahmed, Anwer S. & Takeda, Carolyn & Thomas, Shawn, 1999. "Bank loan loss provisions: a reexamination of capital management, earnings management and signaling effects," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 1-25, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pericoli, Marcello & Sbracia, Massimo, 2005. "'Some contagion, some interdependence': More pitfalls in tests of financial contagion," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(8), pages 1177-1199, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Denis Kwiatkowski & Peter C.B. Phillips & Peter Schmidt, 1991. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 979, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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  10. J.A. Bikker & H. Hu, 2003. "Cyclical Patterns in Profits, Provisioning and Lending of Banks," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 86, Netherlands Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  11. E. P. Davis & S. G. B. Henry, 1994. "The Use of Financial Spreads as Indicator Variables: Evidence for the U.K. and Germany," IMF Working Papers 94/31, International Monetary Fund.
  12. Anderson, T. W. & Hsiao, Cheng., 1980. "Estimation of Dynamic Models with Error Components," Working Papers 336, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
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  1. Mario Quagliariello, 2007. "Macroeconomic uncertainty and banks' lending decisions: The case of Italy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 615, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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