Bank Leverage Shocks and the Macroeconomy: a New Look in a Data-Rich Environment
AbstractThe recent crisis has revealed the potentially dramatic consequences of allowing the build-up of an overstretched leverage of the financial system, and prompted proposals by bank supervisors to significantly tighten bank capital requirements as part of the new Basel 3 regulations. Although these proposals have been fiercely debated ever since, the empirical question of the macroeconomic consequences of shocks to banks’ leverage, be they policy induced or not, remains still largely unsettled. In this paper, we aim to overcome some longstanding identification issues hampering such assessments and propose a new approach based on a data-rich environment at both the micro (bank) level and the macro level, using a combination of bank panel regressions and macroeconomic factor models. We first identify bank leverage shocks at the micro level and aggregate them to an economy-wide measure. We then compute impulse responses of a large array of macroeconomic indicators to our aggregate bank leverage shock, using the new methodology developed by Ng and Stevanovic (2012). We find significant and robust evidence of a contractionary impact of an unexpected shock reducing the leverage of large banks.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by CIRANO in its series CIRANO Working Papers with number 2012s-23.
Date of creation: 01 Sep 2012
Date of revision:
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bank capital ratios; macroeconomic fluctuations; panel; dynamic factor models;
Other versions of this item:
- Jean-Stéphane Mésonnier & Dalibor Stevanovic, 2013. "Bank Leverage Shocks and the Macroeconomy: a New Look in a Data-Rich Environment," Cahiers de recherche 1330, CIRPEE.
- Mésonnier, J-S. & Stevanovic, D., 2012. "Bank leverage shocks and the macroeconomy: a new look in a data-rich environment," Working papers 394, Banque de France.
- C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
- C38 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Classification Methdos; Cluster Analysis; Principal Components; Factor Analysis
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
- G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
- G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-09-09 (All new papers)
- NEP-BAN-2012-09-09 (Banking)
- NEP-CBA-2012-09-09 (Central Banking)
- NEP-MAC-2012-09-09 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2012-09-09 (Monetary Economics)
- NEP-RMG-2012-09-09 (Risk Management)
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